Dallas Nutz - Officially Irrelevant

We all knew the day would come. The Dallas Stars knew it. Joe Nieuwendyk knew it. Stars fans knew it. Mike Modano knew it.

We just didn't know it would come so suddenly and without hearing it from Modano's mouth first.

Last Tuesday afternoon, general manager Nieuwendyk held a press conference announcing that the Stars had decided to proceed without #9 on the roster and had informed Modano as such. Just like that, the greatest player in franchise history was gone and a vacuum the size of Jupiter replaced Modano as the identity of the club. A squad that has missed the playoffs for two straight seasons for the first time since arriving in North Texas back in 1993 had now essentially become a team of no-names for a majority of sports fans in Dallas.

Hockey fans know and respect Brenden Morrow, Brad Richards and Mike Ribeiro. Their wives and kids know and love Mike Modano.

The entire 2009-10 Stars season had a cloud hovering over it that it may be Modano's last season, but I think most fans assumed that would be because he elected to go out on his own terms and retire at the end of the year. As the year progressed and Modano continued to be the most crisp passer on the team and a more than capable – and more importantly, willing - center on a third or fourth line tutoring young forwards, the more it felt like we'd see him for another year in the only jersey he's ever known. However, near the end of the season, there were grumblings that this may be it for Mo in Dallas, and by the last home stand, fans were applauding him like they were seeing him for the last time.

We never heard Modano definitively say he was hanging up the skates, and his departure felt like far more of a push from management than a decision of his own making. His tears and genuine appreciation for Stars fans in that unforgettable last home game against Anaheim back in April spoke volumes: Modano knew he had more to give this team and he knew the fans wanted him back. But behind closed doors, discussions were pointing the opposite direction.

In interviews after the season, when asked about whether or not he would be back next year, his answers sounded much more like a regurgitation of the the reasons that management had given him to let him go than his own responses.

“Well, they have four good centers already – Richards, Ribeiro, Ott, Benn and even Wandell is coming back. That doesn't leave room for me.”

“It's hard to justify paying that much money for an aging third or fourth line center.”

How do you think the Stars' marketing department feels today? “So, you mean we have to come up with a successful marketing plan to increase ticket revenue...without Modano? And without adding any big name free agents? On the cheap? For a team that finished in 12th place in the conference last year? Oof.”

Maybe they can center their ticket packages around the first time Modano returns to Dallas with his new team.

I can understand why Nieuwy and the Stars made the decision they did. If forced to argue their side in a debate, I could come up with a position that makes good hockey sense. However, as a friend of mine put it last weekend, the Stars management has proven itself to be unable to make a series of prudent decisions to move the franchise in a positive direction.

In one somewhat diabolical way, the Stars' brass needs to be given a little credit: they cut ties with Modano and spaced out the press conferences over a couple of perfectly placed days that distracted hockey fans from both their botched draft from last weekend and the beginning of NHL free agency on July 1. In the draft, the Stars, desperately in need of defensemen and having two of the top-ranked D in the draft in Cam Fowler and Brandon Gormley somehow fall to them at pick #11, incredibly selected goaltender Jack Campbell - a player who won't be in the NHL for three years.

And what can we expect from the Stars in free agency this summer? In a word: Nothing. I haven't seen or heard a single rumor involving Dallas. They simply don't have the money to be players.

Last summer, Nieuwendyk's first move as a GM was to get rid of head coach Dave Tippett and all Tip and his mustache did was guide the lowly Phoenix Coyotes to a 107-point season and win the Jack Adams Award as Coach of the Year.

Here's hoping Modano goes to the Desert Dogs as well and ends up skating the Cup next June.

Good luck and best wishes Mike. We're gonna miss ya.

Red Sox Update: Watch Out Below!

The Red Sox disabled list is beginning to look like their opening day lineup. On the DL are the Sox starting second baseman (broken foot), starting catcher (broken finger), opening day starting pitcher (back pull), and starting center fielder (broken ribs).

That would be enough right there, but the Sox are also missing fourth outfielder Jeremy Hermida (more broken ribs). Their starting right and left fielders should probably both be on the DL with injuries, but are gutting it out. Mike Cameron has a sports hernia which will likely require after season surgery but has put the procedure off. He's limited to playing about half the games. Shockingly, JD Drew is also hurt but he's been playing with a pulled hamstring for the same reason as Cameron, namely the team is out of outfielders.

Two days ago Clay Buchholz, Boston's most effective starting pitcher so far this season, tore his hamstring running the bases. Fortunately it seems he'll only miss one start, though he could tear his tongue chewing sunflower seeds, you never know.

Would-be starting shortstop Jed Lowrie who has missed the entire season with mononucleosis and would-be first starting pitcher up from AAA Junichi Tazawa who will miss the entire year with TJ surgery.

Holy crap. Have I forgotten anyone?

Last Friday the Sox started an outfield of (left to right) Daniel Nava, Darnell McDonald, and Bill Hall. A year ago Nava was playing for the Salem Red Sox in A ball, now he's the starting left fielder. McDonald has played for seven different organizations amassing 150 plate appearances since being picked by Baltimore in ...1997? Gah.

The Sox are saved from seeing that outfield alignment again because with Pedroia's broken foot Hall is now the Sox starting second baseman. Hall spent half of last season on the Brewers bench where he hit .201. He was then traded to Seattle where he hit *drum roll* .200.

The Sox are starting to hit the bottom of the reserve barrel. After placing starting catcher Victor Martinez on the DL the team has called up Gustavo Molina (not related to the flying Molina brothers). Molina is the owner of a -18 OPS+ in his nineteen games of major league experience (h/t Joy of Sox). That's right, negative eighteen.

Don't the Sox have anyone better at AAA than Molina? Well, yes, but both Dusty Brown and Mark Wagner are injured.

* * Semi-Off Topic Update: Just learned that the Phils have DL'd their starting second baseman and third baseman. Shame the Sox backup third baseman, Mike Lowell, whom the Sox have been trying to deal since the off season, is also on the DL.

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Why the Blue Jays are playing "home" games in Philadelphia this weekend

The scene just a few blocks from Rogers Centre:

According to this report, a band of, uh, merrymakers are targeting US-based businesses downtown and demolishing them.

"OK, I'm gonna go smash the windows at American Apparel, and you look up on your BlackBerry to see if Foot Locker is based in the States, eh."

Rapid transit to downtown Toronto has been suspended as well.

As much criticism as MLB took for moving the series out of Toronto -- and as much as I would have liked to see Roy Halladay oppose the Jays at their own park -- it's been proven to be a wise decision.

For continuing updates, tune in to T!!! -- your trusted source for Canadian rioting information.

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There's a reason why some teams are bad: Because they're stupid

Before I savage the Dallas Stars' front office, let me make it clear: I think Jack Campbell is a future franchise goalie. He's going to be great. He saved the USA Junior team's bacon and backstopped them to a World Championship, beating the five-time defending champion Canadian team. I like Jack Campbell.

But if you are a Dallas Stars season ticket holder, you are now officially throwing your money into the toilet.

In a chain of events that could not possibly have been predicted by anyone, the second- and third-highest ranked defensemen in the 2010 NHL Entry Draft -- Brandon Gormley and Cam Fowler, ranked by TSN's Bob McKenzie and many others as fourth and fifth overall -- both slid so far down the board that they were available to the Stars at pick number 11.

Fowler, a US-born Canadian Junior player, is a dynamic puck-mover with a great point shot. He plays for the Memorial Cup champion Windsor Spitfires. Gormley is a well-rounded standout defenseman for the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League champion Moncton Wildcats. Furthermore, he grew up idolizing current Star Brad Richards; he grew up near Richards' hometown in Prince Edward Island, attended the same high school, and has known Richards' family since he was a child.

The Stars' current defense corps is more like a corpse. They ranked dead last in scoring among NHL defensive units, with only Stephane Robidas amassing more than 22 points last season, and an enormous majority of those points came in the first half of the season.

Their prospects on defense at the minor league level are similarly weak. Beyond Philip Larsen, they have little to nothing of promise. They are relatively well stocked at the forward positions, partially because of their indefensible decision not to take a defenseman with the eighth overall pick last season.

The guy I wanted them to take, Dmitry Kulikov, jumped straight from Juniors to the NHL last season with Florida. He didn't light the league on fire by any means, but the jump straight to the NHL is, by itself, nearly incontrovertible proof Kulikov is a keeper.

They guy they did draft eighth last season, Scott Glennie, was considered by some to have compiled huge numbers in Junior hockey by riding the coattails of outstanding center Brayden Schenn, who had been drafted two picks earlier by Los Angeles. Both players returned to Juniors with the Brandon Wheat Kings, and Glennie did nothing to dispel those worries. Playing again with Schenn as his center, Glennie was third on the team in scoring, behind Schenn and the other winger on Schenn's line, who had been a fifth-round draft pick of the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Nonetheless, Glennie will probably be a productive NHLer at least, and he'll join good young players like Loui Eriksson, James Neal and Jamie Benn with the big club soon enough. So, to the Stars' credit, I guess, they weren't planning to take another forward in the first round. I am learning not to put any possible dumb decision past this team's braintrust.

They should similarly have been convinced to not draft a goaltender in the first round. They just signed doughy Thrashers draft bust Kari Lehtonen to a three-year contract, and they have two promising goaltending prospects in the forms of Richard Bachman, who will likely play in the AHL next season, and Tyler Beskorowany, who will likely start at the ECHL level in Idaho.

But they went ahead and drafted Campbell. They apparently think he'll be ready for the NHL in a couple of seasons, but Lehtonen will still be on the payroll for starting-netminder money by that point, and they now have two completely redundant assets in Bachman and Beskorowany... And all the while, they have no good defensive prospects. If Larsen makes the NHL team next season -- and they expect him to -- they will not have a single defensive prospect of note.

So they could trade Bachman or Besko for defensive help. But that's another layer of decision-making thrown on top of the issue, for a front office that has shown a near-complete inability to make good decisions. It simply would have been a better decision to draft Fowler or Gormley.

So to recap: The Stars have an awful defensive corps and the opportunity to draft a legitimate difference-maker to shore up the position dropped into their laps. They chose to turn aside and draft a guy who doesn't solve an immediate need and renders two of their best prospects redundant. Bra-f**king-vo.

And wait, it actually gets worse!

The Stars' Pacific Division rivals Anaheim and Phoenix had the next two picks, and -- showing a level of front-office acuity that eludes only the most bass-ackward of organizations* -- used them to draft Fowler and Gormley! So we'll get to see just how good they'll be as NHLers right up close, twelve times a season, for the indefinite future! Won't that be fun, kids?

*The New York Rangers are even more bass-ackward than the Stars, having proven such by passing over Fowler and Gormley to draft Western-League goon Dylan McIlrath 10th overall. McIlrath is also a defenseman. A truly indefensible pick. However, the Rangers can spend their way out of bad decisions. The Stars, with their current ownership, cannot spend their way out of a goddamned bathroom stall.

Joe Nieuwendyk should have been selected for the Hall of Fame. However, he should not be running an NHL franchise. The day can't come soon enough for a new owner to take over the Stars and clean house. I've been critical of Nieuwendyk's choice to coach the team, the comically overmatched Marc Crawford, since the day he was hired. But I've given Nieuwy some rope. He's reached the end of it. Joe Must Go.

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Breaking News: Wilbon Attacked And Eaten By Robots!

If you are a regular reader of this blog - which I imagine disqualifies 100% of you - you know I love going after Michael Wilbon. Well, no longer. I'm here to call off the dogs. In their place I've built an army of robots which will do my dirty work for me by attacking Mr. Wilbon with their metal claws (which are made of metal), and tearing... wait!

He has Old Glory Robot Insurance? Crap! Nevermind. This isn't going to work. I'm gonna have to go back to making fun of Wilbon for writing dumb things via this blog, which, rest assured, I write in my underwear from my parent's basement while eating pudding.

Last year you may remember Wilbon wrote he didn't think the Nationals should draft Steven Strasburg first overall. Well of course I made fun of him for writing that because its a stupid idea. When you suck and you have the first pick in the draft you take the guy who is the best player by a country mile with that pick. End of argument.

Fortunately for the Nationals they didn't listen to Wilbon (neither did anyone else for that matter), they drafted Strasburg, and now he's tearing up the National League. So that all worked out. But, because the suggestion was so asinine, I want to go back and look again at Wilbon's reasoning. Hey, Wilbon, why don't you think the Nats should take Strasburg?

I wouldn't draft a guy who's going to play every fifth day to improve my team's attendance.

With that as the backdrop, Thomas Boswell wrote the following in today's Washington Post:

...the Nats' attendance for June has now risen by more than 33 percent over April and May with three crowds for non-Strasburg games over 31,000. In their next homestand, helped by two Strasburg starts, they'll almost certainly leapfrog from 24th to 19th in attendance in the span of five weeks.

So yeah, the problem with drafting Strasburg is it won't help attendance. Good call, Wilbon.
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You Been Bumped, Fool!

Adrian Beltre is a weird guy. When he singles he runs almost half way to second base before turning around and going back. When he checks his swing he checks with the first base umpire before the catcher does. And when he hits a homer he often, at least this season, hits it from his knees.

For serious:

[edit: Dammit, I can't get this f'n thing to embed. You'll just have to clicky clicky.]

Watching this makes me want to yell, "POW, bitches!" at the end.

Also, if I knew how I'd photoshop BMFS head in there, but alas I do not.
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Who knew Matty had so much in common with Mark Teixeira?

A obscure but mighty bond has emerged between highly paid Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira and T!!!'s own Matty. And what, oh what, could it possibly be?

Orioles fandom gone horribly awry? A perpetually constipated-looking facial expression? The oh-so-permissive sphincter of Scott Boras?

Nay, says I!

Adolescent emotional ruin brought about by the suicide of Kurt Cobain!

Much like our own Matty, Mark Teixeira started referring to himself as "Kurt" after the suicide of Kurt Cobain. Although it should be noted Matty spelled it "Kurdt," 'cause that's how it was spelled in the liner notes of Bleach.*

*A truly wretched album, but Matty was keepin' it real.

And finally, here is something that seems offensive for about two seconds, until you realize Cobain's widow* has disgraced his legacy 500,000 times more severely than whomever photoshopped a Yankees cap onto his head.

*And that's leaving out the debate over whether she actually killed him, which I believe she did.

(...aaaaand thank you to Walk Off Walk for the tip.)

Disclaimer: I have no idea whether any of this crap is actually true. The part about Matty, I mean. The Teixeira part, he admitted that himself. I know Matty really liked Nirvana. That's about it. And I've gotta post some stuff here.

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Why Boston (Or Anyone Else) Can Beat Ubaldo Jimenez

The Red Sox are 10-2 against the NL in inter-league play this season. That's a bit ridiculous. Its all the more so when you consider who the Red Sox have played six versus NL Champ Philadelphia, three versus the defending NL West champ Dodgers, and three against Arizona who, admittedly, sucks.

The Sox lucked out against LA by avoiding ace Clayton Kershaw, but they won't be so lucky against their next two NL opponents, the Colorado Rockies and the San Francisco Giants. In the next week the Sox will face two time defending NL Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum (probably this coming Sunday), and current NL Cy Young front-runner Ubaldo Jimenez tonight. Lincecum is a known commodity, when he's on he's almost unhittable. But Jimenez is a bit of a newcomer to the Cy Young discussion.

He's been in the majors since '07, even pitching against the Red Sox in the World Series that year. But this year he's taken a huge step forward in performance. He's 13-1 with a 1.15 ERA and a WHIP of 1.00. That's Pedro-Martinez-in-his-prime numbers. I haven't seen Jimenez pitch this season, so I checked him out on Fangraphs to see what he's done.

I was expecting to see some very impressive stats, and superficially I did. But I am a bit surprised to say it seems like Jimenez is a good pitcher who's impressive performance so far this season isn't based on anything sustainable.

To keep this simple, the three best things a starting pitcher can do are 1) strike batters out, 2) not walk batters, and 3) keep the ball on the ground. If you strike batters out there is no chance the ball will fall in for a hit. Don't walk batters is self evident, and keeping the ball on the ground eliminates the possibility of a home run and decreases the likelihood of an extra base hit.

Jimenez was a rookie in '07, but in since then he's been a rotation stalwart. He threw 198 innings in 2008, 218 in 2009 and so far this year has thrown 101, a similar pace as the last two seasons. In '08 Jimenez struck out 7.8 batters per nine innings pitched (K/9), a good rate for a starter. In '09 he bettered that slightly at 8.17 K/9. This year, his rate has dropped back to 7.8 K/9. Again, still good.

His BB/9 (walks per nine innings pitched) has dropped slightly each season from 4.67 in '08 to 3.5 in '09 to 3.2 this season. 3.2 is a league average walk rate. Its not great, but if you K enough people and/or get ground balls you can still get above average results.

Now, homers. In '08 Jimenez gave up an average of 0.5 homers per nine innings pitched, half the league average of 1.00. That number stayed essentially the same last year (0.54), but this season its dropped by about half to 0.27. Instead of giving up a homer every 18 innings pitched, Jimenez is giving up a homer every 36 innings pitched. That's extraordinary. The question then becomes is this a sustainable change? Is this the result of something Jimenez is doing?

To find that out, we can look at Jimenez's ground ball rate (number of ground balls per balls in play). If he's keeping the ball on the ground much more we can assume his sinker is more effective this season, which could explain the drop in homers. In '08 Jimenez's ground ball rate was 54%, in '09 it was 53%, and this season its 55%. Not much of a change at all.

So how is Jimenez keeping runners off base? The answer is I don't know exactly, but I can look at his BABIP. BABIP is Batting Average on Balls In Play, which is around .300 on average. Its important to point out that BABIP is something that all pitchers, even great pitchers, have little control over. Mariano Rivera's career BABIP is .273. Tim Lincecum's BABIP the last three years is .313, .297, and .314. Ubaldo Jimenez's BABIP in 2008 it was .306, in 2009 it was .290 and this season it is .185. Oops.

To step back a bit, when a batter doesn't strike out or walk (or get hit by the pitch), i.e. when he puts the ball in play, he's got about a 30% chance to reach base safely. If you break it down further the chance goes up for line drives and down for ground balls (thus the reason ground ball percentage is so important), but overall its about 30% or a .300 average. This is the average (roughly) league wide year after year.

So far this season, if Jimenez doesn't walk or strike the batter out, batters have an 18.5% chance of reaching base. Far fewer runners than average are reaching base on Jimenez. Whats more, when runners do reach, they're often left there. League wide about 30-28% of runners that reach base score. The inverse of that is strand rate or Left on Base percentage, which is 70-72% league wide. Like BABIP above, leaving runners on base at a higher rate than the league average isn't a repeatable skill.

With that as background, lets look at Jimenez's LOB%:

2008: 71%
2009: 74%
2010: 91%

Whoops! Which of these numbers doesn't belong here?

I don't like the word luck. I think its overused in the sabermetric community. Its become a catch-all for stuff we don't totally understand. However, in this case, we have a pretty good understanding. Jimenez is allowing far fewer hits than he ever has before and stranding far more of those runners than he ever has before. He's doing it by striking out hitters at the rate he always has, walking hitters at the league average rate, and getting ground balls at his normal (though above average) rate.

Jimenez has been pitching almost* like he has been for the past two seasons and yet his results are in a completely different stratosphere from any posted in his career. Maybe I'm missing something, but to me this screams 'unsustainable'. At some point more of those balls in play are going to start falling, more of those runners are going to start scoring, and Jimenez's ERA is going to start rising. And through it all Jimenez will still be the same guy he has been since '08. Ain't pitching weird?

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* I say "almost" because in looking through the batted ball data, I noticed that Jimenez is giving up line drives at a lower rate than he usually does. Its debatable how much control pitchers have over giving up line drives, though common sabermetric perception is pitchers don't control LD% which, league-wide, is about 20%. In any case, Jimenez gave up line drives 17.6% of the time in 2008, 19.5% of the time in 2009 and is giving them up 14% of the time this season.

So about 5% of balls in play which used to be line drives are now something else. His GB% has remained basically static as have his K/9 and his BB/9 and his innings pitched, so where's that extra 5%? Answer: fly balls. His FB% has gone up a bit over four percent this season, which seems inconsistent with a sinkerballer like Jimenez. This is probably just random variation, but as Fly Balls produce one third the runs per out this is something elese helping to keep Jimenez's ERA down to its current subterranean level.

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Dunderhead: "No Surprises"

Well, look what popped up on the Philadelphia 76ers' homepage today:


An exhortation to purchase season tickets? Besides that, I mean.

I don't take this as proof they'll take Evan Turner at pick 2; I take the fact that this image was removed from the Sixers' homepage within 1 hour as proof they'll take Evan Turner at pick 2.

(Thanks to Ball Don't Lie for the tip.)

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Lakers Win Their Somethingth Championship!

Summer In DC = Football, Michael Wilbon

Its been downhill ever since

Its summer in DC, the mercury is high, the NBA finals are finishing up, and Steven Strasburg is giving the baseball watching public a giant woody. All this means one thing: in DC, its Football season!

You can take your Cy Young and shove it up your Stanley Cup, cause this is Washington Redskins country. And defensive tackles who cash $21 million checks and then sit out mandatory workouts because they want a trade get the ink in this town, ho.

Albert Haynesworth, the aforementioned check casher/sitter outer is, well, sitting out off-season activities because he doesn't want to play the Redskins new 3-4 defensive scheme. His agent has requested a trade to another team, presumably one that plays a 4-3, though this hasn't been specifically stated or at least reported.

Now its likely that just about everyone who has read the details of this story has the same reaction: Hey Haynesworth, you just cashed a $21 million check from the Redskins. Get. Your. Ass. To. Camp.

Normally a staunch supporter of NFL players, who get the rawest of deals in American professional sports, I'm still in the above camp. I imagine you are too. Its not like the Redskins forced Haynesworth to sign his massive contract, and its not like he didn't have other teams vying for his services at the time. He knew, if he has half a brain which I'm sure he does, that the Redskins were a train wreck under Snyder toady Vinny Cerrato, and yet he took the money.

Today it came out that the Redskins told Haynesworth that they'd release him before he received his $21 million bonus on April 1. Didn't happen. Haynesworth took the money, and how he's got to reap the consequences.

Except not really. In case you can't add, $21 million plus the $10 million from last season equals $31 million, which is what Haynesworth has earned from the Redskins in the last year and a half. By not coming into off season activities, Haynesworth opens himself up to being fined by the team. Know how much the team can fine Haynesworth? Me neither, but I'm guessing a guy with $31 million in the bank probably can afford it.

* * *

So Haynesworth is publicly thumbing his nose at the team months after cashing one of the biggest checks in NFL history. Other than his agent or his family who could possibly take Albert Haynesworth's side in all this?

Nobody, right? Wrong! There is one man. A man who spits in the eye of needle and stands up in the face of public opinion and says, reflexively, "No!"

That man is... [drum roll]... Michael Wilbon.

Everybody now: no shit.

As quoted by the ever-wonderful DC Sports Bog, Wilbon stated the following on the ESPN 980 Sports Fix radio show:

I hope Albert Haynesworth never reports. It's great. Standing ovation from the West Coast for Albert Haynesworth. I love this story, because of course Albert Haynesworth should be at something mandatory, but I love that these offseason workout things [have] so much drama now. Because they shouldn't even be having this junk. It's just another management control tool, that they should be around these camps every single day of the offseason. I love it that these things are blowing up in some teams' faces...

Of COURSE Wilbon would support Haynesworth in this. Why? Because everyone else is supporting the Redskins. It doesn't matter who is right either because its Wilbon's job, as he sees it, to say the opposite of what everyone else is thinking. Makes no difference how asinine or intelligent it is, it must be the polar opposite of what Wilbon perceives to be common wisdom.

As Dan Steinberg of DC Sports Bog said at the beginning of the above post, "When D.C. goes gaga for Ovechkin, Wilbon says the kid needs to check himself. When D.C. goes gaga for Stephen Strasburg, Wilbon says he'd rather watch the NBA Finals. When D.C. does the Salsa, Wilbon breaks out a Polka"

The ironic thing about this is that Wilbon's increasingly reflexive act is just as thoughtless as that that he purports to fight against. In this case, yes, sure, the NFL's draconian off season rules are ridiculous, but a man who just cashed a $21 million check isn't the vehicle with which to drive home this point. Nor is he one to use to make the case for reform.

Standing up to common perceptions is valuable and I can see why Wilbon has a following, but doing it blindly as a reaction is almost as dumb. If Wilbon were really interested in anything other than making waves he would actually examine the issues.

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MLB Draft: 10 Years Of First Round Picks

Every once in a while I decide to stop making fun of the work of others and actually do something myself. This is usually awful, but I won't let that stop me.

With the MLB draft having just happened and in conjunction with Steven Strasburg's incredible debut, I thought it would be interesting to look back on the last ten years of first round draft picks and see how things have gone. I'm going back ten years because, while criticizing the Phillies for taking John Sterns instead of Robin Yount and Dave Winfield in 1973 would be fun, well, where was I going with this?

Lets light this candle!*

* With poop!


2000

First Pick In Draft: Adrian Gonzalez, 1st Base, Florida Marlins

Best Player Chosen: Maybe Gonzalez but probably Chase Utley (15th overall, Philadelphia Phillies)

Worst Pick: Mike Stodolka, LHP, 4th overall, KC Royals. Stodolka cost $2.5M to sign and has never made the majors.

Weirdest Pick: Michael Vick, 30th round, Colorado Rockies - Yes, that Michael Vick.

Comments: Only two of the thirty first round picks including the ten compensatory picks have made an all star game. Indeed, the list of first rounders taken in the 2000 draft reads like a veritable who's-who of nobody. Adam Johnson, Luis Montanez, the aforementioned Stodolka, Justin Wayne, Rocco Baldelli, Matt Harington, Matt Wheatland, Mark Phillips, Joe Torres, Dave Kyrnzel, Joe Borchard, Shaun Boyd, and Beau Hale were drafted second through fourteenth overall. Yikes.


2001

First Pick In Draft: Joe Mauer, Catcher, Minnesota Twins

Best Player Chosen: Mauer, but Mark Teixeira (5th overall, Texas Rangers), and David Wright (38th overall of the supplemental round, New York Mets) are in the discussion

Worst Pick: Dewon Brazelton, RHP, Tampa Bay, 3rd overall.

Comments: The Twins were initially thought to be going cheap by drafting Mauer over Mark Prior, who went second to Chicago. Prior was the consensus top talent in the draft, and had he stayed healthy there might be an argument that the Twins erred. He didn't so there is no argument. With the fourth pick the Phillies passed up Mark Teixeira to take pitcher Gavin Floyd, but made up for it by drafting a first baseman in the fifth round instead: Ryan Howard.

2002

First Pick In Draft: Bryan Bullington, Pitcher, Pittsburgh Pirates

Best Player Chosen: Its between Zack Greinke (6th overall, Kansas City Royals), Cole Hamels (17th overall, Philadelphia Phillies), and Prince Fielder (7th overall, Milwaukee Brewers)

Worst Pick: Bryan Bullington, Pitcher, Pittsburgh Pirates. The pick was made worse by the fact that this draft was loaded with talent. Aside from Greinke, Hamels, and Fielder, Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, Matt Cain, Denard Span, BJ Upton and Jeff Francis all went in the first round.

Comments: This was the Moneyball draft, where the A's famously drafted ball players, not guys who look good in a uniform. Didn't matter, they ended up with about the same talent haul as everyone else anyway.


2003

First Pick In Draft: Delmon Young, OF, Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Best Player Chosen: Chad Billingsley? Aaron Hill? Nick Markakis? Yeesh...

Worst Pick: Kyle Sleeth, RHP, Detroit Tigers, 3rd overall

Comments: This was another lite year. Sure the Sleeth pick looks bad in retrospect, but its not like the Tigers missed out on any game changers either. There are a few solid major league players, but no consistent all stars in the bunch. Lots of talent, but lots of players who never lived up to their talent either, such as Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Brandon Wood, Carlos Quentin, Conor Jackson, Lastings Milledge, Ian Stewart... I could go on but I'll spare you.


2004

First Pick In Draft: Matt Bush, SS, San Diego Padres

Best Player Chosen: Dustin Pedroia (2nd Round, Boston Red Sox) or Justin Verlander (Second overall, Detroit Tigers)

Worst Pick: Matt Bush. Like the Pirates choice of Bullington, the Padres passed up some very well thought of talent to draft Bush who's offensive performance was so offensive that he was eventually converted to pitching before being cut altogether. Not before getting into a fight outside a night club (before ever putting on a uniform) and assaulting someone on a high school campus last year which got him cut from the Blue Jays.

Requisite Football Player: Matt Cassel was picked in the 34th round by the Oakland A's

Comments: Lots of pitching in this draft including Verlander, Homer Baily, Jared Weaver, Phil Hughes, Huston Street, and Nick Adenhart.

2005

First Pick In Draft: Justin Upton, SS, Arizona D-bags

Best Player Chosen: Ryan Zimmerman (4th overall, Washington Natinals), Andrew McCutchen (11th overall, Pittsburgh Pirates),

Worst Pick: Its hard to find a really bad pick here. You have to go pretty far down in the draft to find anyone who was a complete waste. The Yankees drafted C.J. Henry who never amounted to anything, though in fairness to the Yankees (why am I being fair to the Yankees?), they were able to pawn him off on the Phillies as part of the Bobby Abreu salary dump trade. The highest pick to not pan out is probably Jeff Clement, taken third overall, but he was jerked around enough by Seattle that you have to wonder if they ruined him.

Comments: An amazing collection of talent in this draft including Ryan Braun, Clay Buchholz, Matt Garza, Jacoby Ellsbury, Colby Rasmus, Jay Bruce, Troy Tulowitzki, Ricky Romero, Mike Pelfrey, and Andrew McCutchen.

2006

First Pick In Draft: Luke Hochevar, P, KC Royals

Best Player Chosen: Tim Lincecum or Evan Longoria

Worst Pick: Greg Reynolds, P, second overall by the Colorado Rockies

Comments: Lincecum and Longoria are pretty much it as far as top line talent goes in this draft, at least so far. Andrew Baily (6th round) and Chris Coghlan (supplemental first round pick) both won the 2009 Rookie of the Year awards in their respective leagues. Kyle Drabek, Luke Hochevar, Andrew Miller, and Max Scherzer are all still top line prospects or at least are expected to contribute at the major league level this year or very soon, so there is still time for this draft to look better.

2007

First Pick In Draft: David Price, P, Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Best Player Chosen: We're getting close enough to the current time that its hard to definitively say who is best and who is worse because players are still developing. That said, Jason Heyward (14th overall, Braves), Price, Matt Wieters and Rick Porcello are all in the discussion.

Worst Pick: I'll keep picking on the Yankees who burned the 30th overall selection on Andrew Brackman a pitcher who they knew when they drafted him needed Tommy John surgery. Brackman is currently 24 years old and getting his ass kicked in the Florida State league.

Comments: Lots of players here still haven't had a chance to reach the majors yet, so lots of players drafted in the first round. David Price's work out of the bullpen helped Tampa reach the World Series in 2008.

2008

First Pick In Draft: Tim Beckham, SS, Tampa Bay Rays

Best Player Chosen: Who the hell knows, but Buster Posey (5th overall, Giants) and Pedro Alvarez (2nd overall, Pirates) spent the season kicking the crap out of AAA pitching. Posey just got called up and everyone is wondering why Alvarez hasn't yet joined him. Brian Matusz (4th overall, Orioles) just started his first game this past week and pitched well. Gordon Beckham (8th overall, White Sox) was called up last year and hit well, though he's struggling a bit this season.

Worst Pick: Tim Beckham? Beckham is in his third pro season, is still in A+ ball and is hitting .212. He's still 20 years old though, so there is lots of time left for him to turn the tools into skills.

2009

First Pick In Draft: Stephen Strasburg, P, Washington Nationals

Best Player Chosen: Stephen Strasburg, P, Washington Nationals

Worst Pick: Yuniesky Betancourt, SS, Seattle Mariners. Betancourt, who hit .279/.300/.392 that year, got 7 hits in 13 plate appearances including a triple and two doubles with a walk in the final three games of the 2008 season. This almost certainly accidental bout of hitting helped Seattle win its final three games therefore vaulting them over Washington in the standings and ensuring they'd pick second overall instead of first in the 2009 draft. In this way, Yuniesky Betancourt cost the Seattle Mariners Stephen Strasburg.
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A Dispatch From Department Of Bad Ideas

Architect 1: Now think! What can we do to make this new Marlins ball park stand out.

Architect 2: Got it! Seat dildos! You're welcome.

Architect 3: Let me tell you, that's an idea and a half!

1: No... no... I'm thinking more in terms of changing the very foundation of the way that ballparks are built

2: Got it! Build the whole thing out of cheese. You're welcome.

Architect 6: I'm miss-numbered! And why does everything we say have an exclamation point!

3: Shut up, 6. Nobody cares. As to the cheese idea, well, I don't think its tenable. This is Florida after all.

1: 3 is right. Think, people!

2: Got it! build the backstops out of something breakable... Ming vases! You're welcome.

1: No, again, but I like where you're going with this...

3: I think I have something here! [starts drawing a picture]

[everyone gathers around]

All: Ooooh!

3: Well, what do you think?


All: Fish tank backstops! Genius!

2: You're welcome.

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Strasburg Sees Your Hype And Raises You Reality

Its a crying shame that there wasn't an article by Michael Wilbon in this morning's Washington Post. After Wilbon went on the record a year ago saying the Nationals shouldn't draft Steven Strasburg, I wanted so badly to read a self aggrandizing column about how Wilbon thinks Steven Strasburg is the Nationals savior. Sadly it'll have to wait.

In non-Wilbon related news, Steven Strasburg was sick last night. His four pitch combination, highlighted by a super-sick curveball, made the Pittsburgh Pirates look weak. Of course, as we all know, the Pittsburgh Pirates are weak. So are the Cleveland Indians, Strasburg's next opponent. Then, if I'm lining this up correctly, he'll face the not-as-weak-but-still-weak Chicago White Sox, and then either Kansas City or Baltimore depending on whether they use the off day to push the entire rotation back or not. My guess is he'll face KC because that's a home game.

Thems the dregs of the league right there. According to Fangraphs.com, the Pirates are the second worst offensive team in baseball, ahead of only the Houston Astros. The Orioles and Indians are 28th and 27th, respectively. These teams aren't drastically different than facing a stacked AAA lineup. Kansas City is no powerhouse either, but oddly enough, they're not horrible - they're 15th, right at league average. Strasburg won't face a top 10 offense until his fifth start which, again, if I'm counting correctly, will come at the end of the month in Atlanta (the Braves are 9th in MLB in offense).

And yet, based on last night, who he faces my not matter. Its been a while since I've seen so many major league hitters, who see good curveballs all the time, stepping into the bucket. How do you hit an 83 mph pitch that looks like its going to hit you and then drops into the strike zone? Well, you don't, but the bigger concern is hitting the next pitch, the obvious but still unhittable 99 mph sinking fastball on the outside corner. Sometimes as a hitter you just get up there and hope for a mistake and if there isn't one you take your things and head back to the dugout.

I'm not sure, but it looked like Strasburg's only mistake of the night came on a change-up up in the zone that Delwyn Young hit over the wall.

Maybe Strasburg's most impressive inning was the seventh, when he struck out the side on 13 pitches. After going 2-2 with the first hitter of the inning, Strasburg threw 8 straight strikes, not one of which was put into play fair. Four of those eight were swinging, by the way. There are major league pitchers in the league now that go an entire game without getting four swinging strikes. Granted, that's a somewhat extreme example, but the point still stands: making major league hitters swing and miss four times in eight pitches is just damn impressive.

Strasburg's start compares favorably with the first starts of other recent highly touted phenoms. Roger Clemens (4Ks, 3BBs, 5.2 IP), Dwight Gooden (4Ks, 2BBs, 5.0 IP), and Ben McDonald (2Ks, 1BB, 2.2 IP) all had (understandably) mediocre introductions to the big leagues. Possibly the most impressive debut was by Mark Prior, who threw 6 innings, striking out 10 and walking two.

For you trivia buffs, the only pitcher to strike out more batters in his major league debut was the immortal Karl Spooner of the Brooklyn Dodgers, who K'd 15 and BB'd 3 in 9 innings back in 1954.*

* Another interesting aspect to that game was New York Giants manager Leo Durocher's decision to pinch run for a player in the third inning. That is strange in and of itself, but the player he pinch ran for was Willie Mays.

* * *

Also, a new post is up on my other blog.
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"Mommy? Where Do Baseball Players Come From?"

In honor of the baseball draft, I thought I'd take a look at one major league team, chosen at random, and see how their players were acquired. I'll just pick a team out of the hat here and... that team is the Boston Red Sox. Duh. Still, it almost doesn't matter which team I'm looking at, as you will see shortly. Rather than go through the entire 25 man roster, I'll just use today's starting lineup (with starting pitcher).

Marco Scutaro, SS – Not drafted; signed as an international free agent with the Cleveland Indians in 1994 (only American [edit: and Canadian players; doh!] are subject to the draft; Scutaro is from Venezuela), but didn’t make his major league debut until 2002 with Oakland. In between, he passed through the Milwaukee Brewers organization. After playing only 75 games over two seasons for the Mets he was cut and picked up by Oakland where he became a regular player. The A's eventually traded him to Toronto. He signed as a free agent with the Red Sox last off-season.

Dustin Pedroia, 2B – Drafted by Red Sox in 2nd round (the team’s first pick in the draft) of the 2004 Draft. This one's not that interesting. Drafted by the Sox, signed by the Sox, always been with the Sox.

Victor Martinez, C – Signed (again) as an international free agent by the (again) Cleveland Indians. The Red Sox traded for Martinez last July.

Kevin Youkilis, 1B – Drafted by the Red Sox in the 8th round of the 2001 Draft. He's been with the Red Sox organization since, but interestingly enough, before current General Manager Theo Epstein took the job, the Red Sox had agreed to terms with current A’s GM Billy Beane. Beane was to take over the GM duties in Boston, but because Beane was under contract with the A’s, Oakland demanded a player in return for letting Beane go. Youkilis was that player. The deal was agreed to and Youkilis was headed to Oakland until, fortunately for Boston, Beane backed out at the last minute.

David Ortiz, DH – Signed as an international free agent by the Seattle Mariners. The M’s traded him to Minnesota (he was the player to be named later) for Dave Hollins. Later, the Twins cut Ortiz rather than pay him arbitration, and he signed with Boston as a free agent. Ortiz later blamed his lack of success with the Twins on their insistence that he, "hit like a little bitch."

Adrian Beltre, 3B – Signed as an international free agent by the Los Angeles Dodgers. Later signed as a free agent with the Mariners, and then last off-season, with Boston.

Bill Hall, LF – Drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 6th round of the 1998 Draft. Hall was traded by the Brewers to the Mariners in 2009, then by the Mariners to Boston last off season.

Mike Cameron, CF – Cameron has had one of the most interesting careers imaginable. He was drafted by the Chicago White Sox in the 18th round of the 1991 Draft. In 1998, his fourth year in the majors, Cameron was traded to Cincinnati for a rookie named Paul Konerko. Roughly two years later, Cameron was again dealt, this time to Seattle as the centerpiece of the catch going the other way in the deal for Ken Griffey, Jr. Since then he’s signed free agent contracts with the Mets, Brewers, and now Red Sox.

Darnell McDonald, RF – McDonald was drafted in the first round (26th overall) by the Baltimore Orioles in the 1997 Draft. (Four picks earlier the Orioles had also drafted a catcher from a high school in Chatham, IL by the name of Jayson Werth.) McDonald has been a part of seven different franchises, including the then Devil Rays twice (consecutively, strangely enough).

Tim Wakefield, P – Wakefield was drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 8th round of the 1988 Draft. Wakefield is old. He was drafted as a first baseman, but after 44 games there he made the transition to knuckleball pitcher. He finished third in the Rookie of the Year vote in 1992, but was back in the minors in ’94, and cut very early in the ’95 season. He signed with Boston and has been there ever since.

The anatomy of a big league club:
* Four international free agents
* Players picked in the 1st, 2nd, 6th, 8th, and 18th rounds.
* The cherry on top: a first baseman at pitcher.

The only guy in that lineup who was highly sought after in the draft is the only guy who's gonna get cut in a month when Ellsbury comes back. Kinda makes drafting Matt Bush first overall not seem so stupid, eh?

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Bryce Harper And The Number One Draft Pick

The baseball draft is coming up on Monday and everyone is licking the ass of a 17 year old catcher named Bryce Harper. According to Baseball Prospectus's Kevin Goldstein, Harper is going number one. Its gonna happen. Washington Nationals fans, all four of them, are going to sleep with dreams of a Strasburg/Harper battery dancing in their heads. Of course, both are represented by Scott Boras, so six years from now if they're any good they'll be wearing pinstripes, but I digress.

Everyone is so sure that Harper is the guy. Harper is great this, Harper is amazing that; I've even heard Harper compared favorably to Strasburg in terms of prospect status. That's just stupid. Here's the thing: Harper is 17. He's just out of high school. He seems to be a great hitter (he's tearing up the independent leagues now), but did I mention the kid is 17? No 17 year old makes the major leagues. It simply doesn't happen. Not Babe Ruth, not Ted Williams, not Alex Rodriguez, not Ken Griffey, Jr. Doesn't happen. Harper may be drafted number one, but he's going to the minors leagues. The low minors and he's got at least three years in the minor ahead of him, and that's if everything goes perfectly.

Now, I'm not trying to be Michael Wilbon here and say the Nationals shouldn't draft him. In fact, I'm positive they should draft him. My point is simply this: no 17 year old is a sure thing. Strasburg wasn't even a sure thing, but he was as close as they come. He was coming out of college. Scouts knew the level of competition he faced. They could quantify his fastball and curve, they could see how he threw after 25 pitches, after 50 pitches, and after 75. In short, the only thing stopping Strasburg from reaching the Majors was injury and you didn't have be a pro scout to deduce that.

Harper is a completely different story. The New York Times just published an article about the five players who were drafted ahead of Derek Jeter in the 1992 draft. Shockingly, none of the players picked ahead of Jeter were as successful. The upshot was a where-are-they-now with a little bit of ha-ha-other-teams-should've-known-better thrown in for good measure. The final line of the article is this:

‘Who’s better than Derek Jeter in the United States? You tell me.’ ” Five teams thought they had the answer. Five teams were wrong. And five former players, scattered across the country, can always say they were drafted ahead of Jeter, before the world knew the Yankees’ secret.

I've got a secret for you: that's a load of shit. The Yankees had no secret. Sure, they thought Jeter was incredibly talented, but that doesn't mean anything other than he's worthy of being our first round pick. Know who the Yankees drafted the previous year? Brien Taylor, a pitcher. Ever heard of him? If so, its only because he was picked first overall by the Yankees. Dude blew his arm out and never made it to the majors.

The major league draft is a perilous process. Most guys, even first rounders, don't make it to the show. Of the ones that do, most have short careers. The all-stars are tough to find and there is a huge element of luck in drafting one. The Yankees had no secret when it came to drafting Jeter. They saw his talent and were lucky enough to have sucked enough the previous year, but he was no sure thing. Bryce Harper is similar in that way. He's just out of high school, massively talented, and is about to be very rich. The similarities probably end there.
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Just in Case You Haven't Chosen Up Sides in the Stanley Cup Finals Yet...

I expect you to be in full, flagrant support of the Flyers from now on.

Of course Jesus wears no. 1. Honestly, if the nameplate were obscured, I would have guessed it would read "WEIRD AL."

Now, if only I had the skills to photoshop the Blackhawks' entire first line into matching t-shirts that read "PROPERTY OF CHRIS PRONGER."

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Lakers-Celtics, Round 12. This Time the Leprechaun Takes it in the Nutz

My adolescence was defined by Lakers-Celtics. My dad would pace around the block at halftime during he games to lower his blood pressure and avoid the temptation to throw something through the window, particularly if the hated Celts were winning. I grew up a Laker fan; most of my family hailed from Lansing, MI and by the time I was 9 years old, my grandfather was telling me about a Lansing high school phenom named Earvin Johnson. By the time Magic was a Laker, I was hooked. The '84, '85 and '87 NBA Finals between the Celtics and Lakers were some of the most intense moments in my life and watching LA dispatch of the hated shitstains from Beantown the last 2 times they met are my greatest sports memories of all time.

Which has my anticipation for this year's NBA Finals reaching something close to a Great White shark circling a wounded sea lion. I smell blood.

While the Lakers were expected to represent the Western conference all season, and save for a few blips against OKC and Phoenix, they pretty much dictated the terms of their playoff run. Boston, on the other hand, started strongly this season, but then became a very ordinary squad over the last half of the year and appeared primed for a brief playoff run.

If nothing else, the Eastern conference playoffs revealed that LeBron James and Dwight Howard don't have the stones or the drive to ramp up their caliber of play to match the championship-experienced Celtics squad, and Boston took advantage of their ineptitude to make the Finals.

So, here we are. Time for a breakdown:

Boston Celtics (50-32) vs Los Angeles Lakers (57-25)

Head-to-Head Averages

	Lakers	Celtics
Wins	1	1
PPG	88	88
RPG	43	41
APG	15.5	20.5
FG%	0.44	0.45
FT%	0.68	0.7
3 PT %	0.27	0.32

On the surface, the average numbers for the two meetings between the Celtics and Lakers are staggeringly close. They both put up 88 ppg, more than 10 points below their season averages, so we can see that they are able to clamp each other down defensively. The primary options for both teams (Bryant, Gasol, Bynum & Odom for LA; Garnett, Allen, Pierce, Rondo for Boston) were all held in check very well, with Ray Allen's 24 point performance in their second meeting being the highest individual scoring effort in the season series.

However, Kobe only played in the first meeting – an LA victory. He sat out the second game with an ankle injury and the Celts were able to end the Lakers' five-game winning streak on the Staples Center floor.

All season, it felt like these two teams were eying each from opposite coasts, hoping to decide a rubber match for titles over the past three seasons. The Lakers want to prove that the fact that they didn't get to face the Celtics fo their championship last season didn't diminish it in any way and the Celtics hope to show LA that they are still the better team following their early exit from the playoffs last year (mainly due to an injury to KG). Boston beat LA for the ring in 2008 and they would love to extend their franchise title advantage to 18-15.

However, Paul Pierce is two seasons older and is not able to summon the heroic scoring and defensive abilities - and Oscar-worthy acting while feigning life-threatening injury – that he did on his way to winning the MVP of the Finals in 2008. Kobe is more in sync with Gasol, who is far and away the most talented big man in the series, and trusts his teammates more. In addition, the Lakers now have Ron Artest to hound Pierce and he will take great joy in earning the final measure of respect from his teammates making Pierce shrivel in this series. There's no doubt that Rajon Rondo's meteoric improvement since 2008 could potentially play a huge factor in the series, but I think that the Lakers will allow Kobe to conserve energy on the defensive end while laying off Rondo and making him prove that his is ready to perform on the biggest of stages. The Lakers will stick on all of the other Celtics and make Rondo prove himself as a scorer, something that he is not ready for.

I may be a rematch of the Finals from 2 years ago, but it feels like a decade has passed since the Celts punked LA. I see it playing out like this:

'08 Lakers + Artest + more confident Pau + Bynum + Kobe in supernova mode >>> '08 Celtics - Leon Powe - PJ Brown - James Posey + (Geriatric KG + Knucklehead Rasheed) = Lakers in 5.

A Memorial Day Message From Major League Baseball

Hey, war veterans! Your pain and suffering in the name of our country has not gone unnoticed by those of us here at Major League Baseball. When you awake at 3am to the screams of friends with their limbs blown off ringing in your ears, be comforted that your pain, your anguish, your ensuing alcoholism, spousal abuse and homelessness have enabled us to make two more dollars for every hat we sell!

Oh, but we're getting ahead of ourselves. First we want you to know that we honor you. We honor your sacrifice and we honor your service to this great, great country. In fact, we honor you so much we decided Memorial Day would be an excellent marketing opportunity chance to honor you by forcing our players to wear specially designed uniforms and hats, which we then sell to the public. But, lest you think this is just another crass marketing opportunity, you should know that we donate a whole dollar from the sale of our Memorial Day hats to the Welcome Back Veterans Fund, a fund which we started! That's right, we donate a whole 2.7% of the costs! To ourselves! Ain't we something?

Of course, nothing is free, are we right? So, sadly, we were forced to raise the price of the Memorial Day hats from the regularly exorbitant $33 to $36. Why did we raise the price by three dollars but only donate one dollar to the Welcome Back Veterans Fund? Well, I'll tell you why. Hey! Look at that bird! What beautiful plumage!

So, yes, our hats which used to cost $33 now cost $36, and yes, only one dollar of that three goes to a 'veterans fund' which we created and run, but look at it this way. See?

Thank you very much for your service.

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