The very astute NFL analyst Mike Lombardi* has a saying he uses when predicting which team will win a particular game: "They have to guess right." Simply put, the best teams can play every game in the way they're best built to play, and the other team is forced to adapt. The Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints did not have to guess right; the Dallas Cowboys, good as they are, have to guess right. (Let's not even get into the Eagles, the ultimate "have to guess right" team, and for whom I believe Lombardi coined the term.)
*Don't let the Philly accent fool you -- the dude is sharp.
In the Stanley Cup Playoffs -- absent the Caps -- we're already down to only two teams that don't have to guess right: Detroit and Pittsburgh, each the defending two-time champion of its respective conference. Frankly, we're godforsaken sick and tired of both those teams.
Alas, just having to guess right doesn't mean you're going to lose. Sometimes you do guess right. The Patriots won three championships by guessing right; the 2007 offensive-juggernaut team that didn't have to guess right... went 18-0 and lost the Super Bowl. The Giants guessed right.
Western Conference
(1) San Jose vs (5) Detroit
Hard to shake the image of the Red Wings savagely beating a Coyotes team on the road that is built and coached to avoid savage beatings. The Sharks showed enough flubbery in their series vs. Colorado that they might be fortunate to still be participating in the playoffs. That said, Nabokov played well in the final two games.
Pick: Detroit in 6
(2) Chicago vs (3) Vancouver
The Blackhawks are just barely a guess-right team, because of their youth and uncertain goaltending. Particularly earlier in the season, they were frequently able to just impose their will. Here's a guess from Joel Quenneville: Moving Dustin Byfuglien up from the blueline to the wing. I think this guess will prove to be right, as Roberto Luongo is easily rattled by traffic and the Canucks lack physical, crease-clearing defensemen. It'll be a repeat of last year.
Pick: Chicago in 6
Eastern Conference
(4) Pittsburgh vs. (8) Montreal
The Pens don't have to guess: just control the puck, skate around and wait for the referee's arm to go up. Of course, if Dan Bylsma could run a power play, the Pens would have won the President's Trophy -- everything about them is great other than their power play, which is absolutely indefensible with the talent on this team. Max Lapierre will average two diving penalties per game.
The Caps would have beaten Montreal if they had a guy like Crosby who can reliably score by batting pucks out of mid-air or banking them in off defensemen. Catch... Fly... With... Chopsticks.
Pick: Pittsburgh in 5
(6) Boston vs. (7) Philadelphia
At the conclusion of Boston's series-clinching Game 6 win, Jack Edwards -- the clown prince of homer histrionics -- unleashed this one: "Snowball 1, Hell... zero!" This, like two days after the seven-seed Flyers knocked off the two-seed Devils, and a couple days before the eight-seed Canadiens knocked off the top-seed Capitals. Who's the snowball now, fruitcake? And Buffalo is hell? That's where the Bruins' owner lives!
Edwards has been wailing woe all season about the Bruins' injuries, but now the team is healthy and the Flyers are dropping like flies. Hopefully this matchup rescues Scott Hartnell from the side of the proverbial milk carton; he was the Flyers' best player against the Bruins on New Year's Day.
Pick: Philadelphia in 7
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Thursday, April 29, 2010
Not So Fast, Knob -- It's Still Hockey Season 'Round These Parts
To hell with the NBA -- the NHL is where Amazing happens.
(Note: Just after I posted this, I switched over to the Spurs/Mavs game, which I shut off when the Mavs were losing 42-21... And the Mavericks were winning the game. OK, so Amazing happens in the NBA too. However, in the 5 minutes I watched, the Mavs blew the lead and are now trailing by 9 as I switch back to hockey. File that under "not Amazing.")
After a round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, who woulda thought Matty's horse would be at the glue factory while mine's still in the running? (Well, I did think mine would still be in the running, but that's as far as I can go.)
So now it's baseball season for Matty, who lives in a city with no Major League Baseball... and, soon, no minor-league baseball either. The Portland Beavers (mas
cot: "Lucky Beaver") have been competing in various affiliated leagues for several decades, but will cease operations after this season when their stadium is remodeled to house a new Major League Soccer team. Ohhh Elizabeth, this is the big one! I'm comin' to join ya, honey.
To any apoplectic Caps fan, I say the same thing I say to everyone whose team gets wiped out of the playoffs a round or two earlier than they expected: It's fucking hard to win a Stanley Cup.*
*For everyone except Pittsburgh last season and the 2004 Lightning, neither of whom had any injuries whatsoever while watching their opponents' players file into the trainer's room. The Flyers have played 5 games thus far in the playoffs and have already lost more man games to injury than the Penguins did during their entire Cup run last season.
All hockey fans -- except for the tonsil jockeys in Pittsburgh -- should share in the pain Capitals fans are experiencing: it's bad for the NHL that the Caps got dumped in the first round. (And not just from the standpoint of TV ratings. It's bad for the game.) The NFL is often called a "copycat league," but all leagues are copycat leagues. (Ask Billy Beane, whose every unique idea has been co-opted by other general managers with more resources to throw around.) I really hope this upset doesn't end up serving as a referendum on offense-first hockey, because the Caps are the most fun team in the league to watch, and we need more teams like them, not fewer.
Why shouldn't it serve as a referendum on the style the Capitals play? Simply: goaltending is the ultimate equalizer -- the most important position in any sport. As much as I harp on the importance of starting pitching in baseball, anyone who saw Jaroslav Halak in the last 3 games of that series would have to agree: goaltending trumps everything. You swap in almost any opponent rather than the Habs in that series -- Boston, Philly, probably even Pittsburgh -- and the Capitals DESTROY them.
Caps fans: Your team should not, and will not, fire Bruce Boudreau. They will not trade Mike Green for pennies on the dollar.* They will not strip Alex Ovechkin of the captaincy. They will not stuff Alex Semin in a box labeled "ABU DHABI" and abandon him at the post office. (However, they will hopefully hire a Russian mafiosi to throw Brad Watson on a boat with half a tank of gas and shove him out to sea, but that's beside the point.)
*Although, if they do, I hope the Stars get him. He would single-handedly revolutionize this team.
I know Matty has been a hockey fan most of his life, but for those of you who are new to all the Red-Rocking, there is this to heed:
Two years* before the Yzerman-era Detroit Red Wings won their first Stanley Cup in 1996, they were the no. 1 seed in the West and got dumped in the first round by the San Jose Sharks, who were in only their third season of existence, and had finished 18 points behind Detroit in the standings.
*Well, one and a half years -- the next season was the lockout-shortened season in which Eric Lindros won the Hart Trophy, mostly by virtue of playing a short enough season that he was able to complete it without being injured.
That next (lockout) season, the Red Wings won the President's Trophy, steamrolled to the Finals with only two losses en route, and then lost to -- nay, got swept by -- the execrable, trap-tastic New Jersey Devils.
Caps fans, this very well may be your team's fate NEXT SEASON. And you'd accept that fate and call it motherfucking ice cream if they won the next two Stanley Cups and another one 4 years later.
It's hard to win a Stanley Cup.*
*Triumphant return of the Plaschke Paragraph!
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(Note: Just after I posted this, I switched over to the Spurs/Mavs game, which I shut off when the Mavs were losing 42-21... And the Mavericks were winning the game. OK, so Amazing happens in the NBA too. However, in the 5 minutes I watched, the Mavs blew the lead and are now trailing by 9 as I switch back to hockey. File that under "not Amazing.")
After a round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, who woulda thought Matty's horse would be at the glue factory while mine's still in the running? (Well, I did think mine would still be in the running, but that's as far as I can go.)
So now it's baseball season for Matty, who lives in a city with no Major League Baseball... and, soon, no minor-league baseball either. The Portland Beavers (mas
cot: "Lucky Beaver") have been competing in various affiliated leagues for several decades, but will cease operations after this season when their stadium is remodeled to house a new Major League Soccer team. Ohhh Elizabeth, this is the big one! I'm comin' to join ya, honey.To any apoplectic Caps fan, I say the same thing I say to everyone whose team gets wiped out of the playoffs a round or two earlier than they expected: It's fucking hard to win a Stanley Cup.*
*For everyone except Pittsburgh last season and the 2004 Lightning, neither of whom had any injuries whatsoever while watching their opponents' players file into the trainer's room. The Flyers have played 5 games thus far in the playoffs and have already lost more man games to injury than the Penguins did during their entire Cup run last season.
All hockey fans -- except for the tonsil jockeys in Pittsburgh -- should share in the pain Capitals fans are experiencing: it's bad for the NHL that the Caps got dumped in the first round. (And not just from the standpoint of TV ratings. It's bad for the game.) The NFL is often called a "copycat league," but all leagues are copycat leagues. (Ask Billy Beane, whose every unique idea has been co-opted by other general managers with more resources to throw around.) I really hope this upset doesn't end up serving as a referendum on offense-first hockey, because the Caps are the most fun team in the league to watch, and we need more teams like them, not fewer.
Why shouldn't it serve as a referendum on the style the Capitals play? Simply: goaltending is the ultimate equalizer -- the most important position in any sport. As much as I harp on the importance of starting pitching in baseball, anyone who saw Jaroslav Halak in the last 3 games of that series would have to agree: goaltending trumps everything. You swap in almost any opponent rather than the Habs in that series -- Boston, Philly, probably even Pittsburgh -- and the Capitals DESTROY them.
Caps fans: Your team should not, and will not, fire Bruce Boudreau. They will not trade Mike Green for pennies on the dollar.* They will not strip Alex Ovechkin of the captaincy. They will not stuff Alex Semin in a box labeled "ABU DHABI" and abandon him at the post office. (However, they will hopefully hire a Russian mafiosi to throw Brad Watson on a boat with half a tank of gas and shove him out to sea, but that's beside the point.)
*Although, if they do, I hope the Stars get him. He would single-handedly revolutionize this team.
I know Matty has been a hockey fan most of his life, but for those of you who are new to all the Red-Rocking, there is this to heed:
Two years* before the Yzerman-era Detroit Red Wings won their first Stanley Cup in 1996, they were the no. 1 seed in the West and got dumped in the first round by the San Jose Sharks, who were in only their third season of existence, and had finished 18 points behind Detroit in the standings.
*Well, one and a half years -- the next season was the lockout-shortened season in which Eric Lindros won the Hart Trophy, mostly by virtue of playing a short enough season that he was able to complete it without being injured.
That next (lockout) season, the Red Wings won the President's Trophy, steamrolled to the Finals with only two losses en route, and then lost to -- nay, got swept by -- the execrable, trap-tastic New Jersey Devils.
Caps fans, this very well may be your team's fate NEXT SEASON. And you'd accept that fate and call it motherfucking ice cream if they won the next two Stanley Cups and another one 4 years later.
It's hard to win a Stanley Cup.*
*Triumphant return of the Plaschke Paragraph!
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Jon Heyman, Ryan Howard, And My Broken Television Set
Rather than write about the unspeakable, I'm going to beat on Jon Heyman. Yay! Come with me then, folks, to the land where RBIs hold sway, where Scott Boras is king, where hearing something from someone somewhere constitutes a source...
Come with me...
...to Wanker Country! (As always, apologies to the late, lamented Fire Joe Morgan.)
Why the Howard deal makes sense for Philly
Howard's contributions can be overlooked at times because of the overwhelming presence of Pujols, who's clearly the best player in the National League, and also because Howard is only part of a fabulous nucleus in Philly that includes Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Jayson Werth.
Howard has won the Rookie of the Year award, the MVP award and is the starting first baseman on a team that has been to two consecutive World Series, winning one of them. So, yeah, he's overlooked. To prove it, lets go back in time, all the way to the year 2006...
MVP Voter #1: We just can't give the MVP to Albert Pujols again.
MVP Voter #2: Totally. I mean, if he won that would be... what? [pulls out calculator] Two in a row! We just can't do that.
MVP Voter #3: So if not Pujols who should it be this year?
#1: I... uh... I have no idea. Anyone know any baseball players? How about Michael Jordan?
#2: He's a basketball player. And he doesn't even play anymore.
#1: Oh, right. Both sports start with the letter B so I get them confused.
#3: I know! How about Superman? You'd have a hard time telling me that Superman isn't the MVP.
#2: True, except Superman doesn't play baseball either, remember? Also, he doesn't exist in real life.
#3: Damn! I knew I forgot something. Well, since nobody in this room has watched a second of baseball all year long, why don't we just whip out the old Baseball Encyclopedia here and pick a name at random then. I'll just close my eyes... and... "Howard, Ryan." Done. There's your MVP.
#1 & #2: MVP! MVP! MVP!
Howard does have a few negatives, such as his high strikeout totals (an average of 189 the past four seasons), his weakness against left-handed pitchers (last year his OPS was 1.088 vs. right-handers vs .653 vs. lefties), his age (30) and the possibility he'll decline during the contract as he gets older.
Yeah, but who doesn't have "negatives", right? If you're gonna throw $125 mill at someone beginning in two years, you're just gonna have to deal with negatives. Like he might not be able to play very well.
But the belief among skeptics of the deal that this was an obvious overpay isn't reflected one bit among baseball people.
Apparently Jon Heyman has spoken to every baseball person, all of whom have given a 100% endorsement of the deal. Here are a few of their comments:
"The only thing wrong with this deal is [it isn't long enough. Also, its not for enough money]."
- Billy Beane
"That's a [greatest ever in the history of the world] deal!"
-Brian Cashman
"You've reached Theo. Please leave a message after the [If I had $125 million, I'd give it to Ryan Howard]."
- Theo Epstein
In fact, a few inside the game remarked that the package was strong...
THAT'S WHAT SHE SAID!!!
...though not unreasonably so and one actually opined that it was light. I agree with the prominent competing agent who said, "The $25 million AAV (average annual value) reflects fair market value.''
So, did the "prominent competing agent" really say "AAV" or did they say "AAV parentheses [little thing with your hands] average annual value end parentheses [little thing with your hands again]? Just curious...
Also, OF COURSE ANOTHER AGENT DIDN'T THINK IT WAS TOO MUCH MONEY. He's an agent!
Lets play a game: The Johnsons live next door to the Smiths. They both paid $300,000 for their houses one year ago. Now the Smiths are moving. They sell their house for $600,000. Now, write a guess down on a piece of paper as to whether or not the Johnson's think the Smiths got too much for their house. Now go to the Johnsons and ask them if the Smiths sold their house for too much money, but before you do, stab yourself in the pee hole with an ice pick.
And one more thing (sorry): It might be fair market value, but Ryan Howard isn't on the market. Which, you know, kinda matters.
As boring as it sounds, it was a good deal for both sides.
BORING!! Lets light a fire under this bitch! More exclamation points!!! More CAPITALIZATION!! The Phillies SCREWED UP!! WHAT WAS RYAN HOWARD THINKING?!?!MORE GAY SEX!!! Come on, Heyman!
There are those suggesting Howard won't be the player at the end of the deal, when he'll be 36, that he is now, and that isn't an unreasonable prediction. But A-Rod, for example, will be 42 when his contract will be up, and besides, that guess can be made about many long-term deals. One GM said five years isn't outrageous at all and actually praised Howard for not being greedy and insisting on seven or eight.
Let's paraphrase that paragraph:
'Some "people" if you want to call them that, say Ryan Howard won't be as good in seven years when he's 36 years old. They base that on stats or history or something. But some other guy who this whole thing isn't even about and who isn't even 36 now will be really old when his contract is up. Also, all long term deals are dumb even though this one isn't. And a guy I talked to doesn't think Howard is greedy. So suck on that proof, "people!" '
That Howard received $2 million more than Teixeira also seems about right under the circumstances. Teixeira has a more diverse set of skills, is slightly younger and signed in New York as a free agent...
"Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I come before you to declare the defendant innocent! Sure he killed his family. Sure, he tied them up and ate them slowly with a spork over the course of a month. Sure he put a sign up on his door that said, "Do not disturb. Cannibal at work." which was written in blood...
...but he [Teixeira] couldn't make a case that he has the same offensive impact as Howard, a classic slugger.
...but he's innocent! Thank you very much."
With the $39 million Howard is making this year and next on his current deal, that means he'll get $164 million though 2016, or just $16 million less than the eight-year contract Teixeira signed with the Yankees. Teixeira's defense is superior, but considering all the variables, $164 million isn't unreasonably high for Howard.
I'll give you two replies here.
Serious Reply:
You can't say, "Over this time period which I have randomly selected things don't look so bad." Teixeira signed his deal as a free agent in the middle of a bidding war between the Yankees, the Red Sox, and the Angels. That had a huge impact on the money he ended up making. Ryan Howard didn't come within a year and a half of free agency. There was no bidding war except, apparently, by the Phillies against themselves. These two situations are not remotely comparable.
Non-serious Reply:
Poopy-butt!
But here are a few more reasons Howard is worth this investment:
Oh goody...but before I see Heyman's list, I'll give you my list and then we'll compare them. I bet they're close!
1) Good handshake
2) Can count to 8 in five different languages (if you count Canadian as a language)
3) Thinks the Rolling Stones totally rock
4) Fully potty trained
5) Six words: Best origami goose you ever saw
1) He's showed his value by finishing first, fifth, second and third in MVP voting the last four years.
Crap! I guess our lists are different... sigh... I'll never quit you, Jon Heyman!
There is a group of numbers people who think these finishes don't count, but there is no reason to think Howard was vastly overvalued in the voting.
This sentence could have and probably should have been written by someone with the language and reasoning skills of a seven year old. Numbers people think the finishes don't count? Of course they count. In fact, they are Exhibit 1 by the Ryan Howard IS Overvalued camp. I could get into a big How-are-MVP-awards-decided thing, but I'll spare you, except to say Jon Heyman has a vote.
The folks around his team view him as valuable, as do opposing teams who have intentionally walked him an average of 24 times a year for the last four full seasons.
That is technically true. It is also technically true that Jon Heyman is misleading his readers, many of whom can probably do simple math. To wit: Ryan Howard's intentional walk totals over the last four years:
2006: 37
2007: 35
2008: 17
2009: 8
Notice a pattern there?
2) He also has averaged 49.5 home runs and 143 RBIs over the past four years, far more than anyone else. Everyone agrees that home runs are an important stat, but to those who believe RBIs are only a reflection of one's teammates, and thus pure luck, here are the top five RBI leaders since 1900: Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Lou Gehrig and Stan Musial. Five very lucky fellows.
Wow.*
* Plaschke Paragraph!!
Lets try to go over the logical leaps made by Mr. Heyman in the preceding paragraph.
a) Ryan Howard averages 49.5 homers and 143 RBIs over the past four years.
- With you so far.
b) Far more than anyone else.
- Well... fine. Its not worth fighting about. Continue.
c) Some people believe RBIs are only a reflection of a player's team mates.
- True.
d) Those people are really goblins.
- Of course.
e) Goblin-people believe RBIs are pure luck.
- This is where I gotta stop you, Heyman. Nobody said RBIs are pure luck. RBI opportunities are team dependent. The more RBI opportunities a player has the more RBIs they are likely to get. RBI opportunities come when, and stop me if you've heard this before, players are on base when you come to bat. So, it would stand to reason that - and I'm going to stay very general here - the better the players are on your team, the more chances you have to hit with men on base. So, the more chances you have to hit with men on base, the more chances you have to drive those men in.*
Too complicated? Fine. We'll stick with 'goblin-people believe they're pure luck' then.
*Don't believe me? Put Ryan Howard on the Pirates and tell me he'll still average 143 RBIs over the last four years. Now do it again, but this time, stop lying.
f) The top five RBI leaders since 1900: Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Lou Gehrig and Stan Musial.
- Indisputably great hitters all. Also, their ranks all time in number of games played: Aaron 3rd, Musial 6th, Bonds 10th. Ruth and Gehrig both played for probably the greatest offensive team in the history of baseball. The Yankees of the '20s and '30s were so good that even when they led off an inning there was always someone on base.
g) Aaron, Ruth, Bonds, Gehrig and Musial are five very lucky fellows.
- You, sir, are kind of a dick.
3) It isn't unreasonable to suggest Howard might decline during his extension. As a matter of logic, he probably will. But the evidence isn't strong that he's declining yet, (his 2009 slugging percentage of .571 wasn't significantly different from his .582 career mark), and even if he does suffer a slight drop off, it's from a tremendous height (his 198 home runs over the past four years are 29 more than everyone else).
I don't know who is saying Howard is in decline. I'm certainly not. The issue isn't whether he's declining now anyway. Its will he decline when the extension kicks in or soon thereafter?
Plus, he's shown he's serious about his game and his body. He has lost an estimated 30 pounds and remarkably turned himself into at least an average defensive first baseman from something a lot less than that.
This is true and Howard deserves lots of credit for his hard work.
So in that way, he's actually on the rise.
Howard's OPS the last four years:
2006: 1.084
2007: .976
2008: .881
2009: .931
Yeah, nope.
4) He's a winner...
So is Claude Francois and I don't see anyone throwing $125 million at him.
...and a major part of one of the strongest lineups in baseball. Why mess with a good thing?
Why mess with a good thing? Now there's an argument!
Phillies GM, Ruben Amaro, Jr.: Ryan Howard is an excellent player and we love having him here with the Phillies, but your proposal of $25 million a year for five years beginning two years from now is completely insane. There's no precedent for it and whats more, Ryan is a Phillie for two more years. Why in the world would we agree to that?
Casey Close, Ryan Howard's Agent: Why mess with a good thing?
Amaro: OK, lets do it!
5) The market could explode. The economy is improving, baseball is doing great and the appetite for superstars on the free-agent market is always strong, even in down times like the past couple years. "You can't really pinpoint what these guys could be getting on the open market,'' Boggs said, honestly. That's true, but that allows for the possibility it could go way up.
Way up? Like past $25 million a year?
Here's a list of the top five deals by AAV:
1. Roger Clemens, $28,000,022 (2007)
2. Alex Rodriguez, $27,500,000 (2008-17)
3. Alex Rodriguez, $25,200,000 (2001-10)
4. Ryan Howard, $25,000,000 (2012-16)
5(t). Joe Mauer, $23,000,000 (2011-18)
5(t). C.C. Sabathia, $23,000,000 (2009-15)
So Howard is fourth. All time. The guy who's first signed in the middle of the year so he didn't collect a full year's salary. And the two guys directly above Howard are actually the same guy. Meaning, Howard is going to be making more money per year than everyone but one guy has ever made.
OK, worst case. Suppose the Phils decide to wait till Howard is a free agent to resign him. Howard hits 55 homers this year and 55 next year. You think the Phils would be laughed out of the room for offering $25 million a year?
Of course there's a chance the market explodes and $25 million a year doesn't seem like too much. There's a chance Howard continues to hit like he has, or even improves. There's a chance he defies the typical aging pattern established through over 100 years of baseball history.
By themselves each isn't more than a 50/50 proposition. Taken together, its a long shot, but there's a chance that all those things happen. But here's the question: Do you want to put a $125 million down on it? Jon Heyman does, which should probably be your answer right there.
.
Come with me...
...to Wanker Country! (As always, apologies to the late, lamented Fire Joe Morgan.)
Why the Howard deal makes sense for Philly
Howard's contributions can be overlooked at times because of the overwhelming presence of Pujols, who's clearly the best player in the National League, and also because Howard is only part of a fabulous nucleus in Philly that includes Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Jayson Werth.
Howard has won the Rookie of the Year award, the MVP award and is the starting first baseman on a team that has been to two consecutive World Series, winning one of them. So, yeah, he's overlooked. To prove it, lets go back in time, all the way to the year 2006...
MVP Voter #1: We just can't give the MVP to Albert Pujols again.
MVP Voter #2: Totally. I mean, if he won that would be... what? [pulls out calculator] Two in a row! We just can't do that.
MVP Voter #3: So if not Pujols who should it be this year?
#1: I... uh... I have no idea. Anyone know any baseball players? How about Michael Jordan?
#2: He's a basketball player. And he doesn't even play anymore.
#1: Oh, right. Both sports start with the letter B so I get them confused.
#3: I know! How about Superman? You'd have a hard time telling me that Superman isn't the MVP.
#2: True, except Superman doesn't play baseball either, remember? Also, he doesn't exist in real life.
#3: Damn! I knew I forgot something. Well, since nobody in this room has watched a second of baseball all year long, why don't we just whip out the old Baseball Encyclopedia here and pick a name at random then. I'll just close my eyes... and... "Howard, Ryan." Done. There's your MVP.
#1 & #2: MVP! MVP! MVP!
Howard does have a few negatives, such as his high strikeout totals (an average of 189 the past four seasons), his weakness against left-handed pitchers (last year his OPS was 1.088 vs. right-handers vs .653 vs. lefties), his age (30) and the possibility he'll decline during the contract as he gets older.
Yeah, but who doesn't have "negatives", right? If you're gonna throw $125 mill at someone beginning in two years, you're just gonna have to deal with negatives. Like he might not be able to play very well.
But the belief among skeptics of the deal that this was an obvious overpay isn't reflected one bit among baseball people.
Apparently Jon Heyman has spoken to every baseball person, all of whom have given a 100% endorsement of the deal. Here are a few of their comments:
"The only thing wrong with this deal is [it isn't long enough. Also, its not for enough money]."
- Billy Beane
"That's a [greatest ever in the history of the world] deal!"
-Brian Cashman
"You've reached Theo. Please leave a message after the [If I had $125 million, I'd give it to Ryan Howard]."
- Theo Epstein
In fact, a few inside the game remarked that the package was strong...
THAT'S WHAT SHE SAID!!!
...though not unreasonably so and one actually opined that it was light. I agree with the prominent competing agent who said, "The $25 million AAV (average annual value) reflects fair market value.''
So, did the "prominent competing agent" really say "AAV" or did they say "AAV parentheses [little thing with your hands] average annual value end parentheses [little thing with your hands again]? Just curious...
Also, OF COURSE ANOTHER AGENT DIDN'T THINK IT WAS TOO MUCH MONEY. He's an agent!
Lets play a game: The Johnsons live next door to the Smiths. They both paid $300,000 for their houses one year ago. Now the Smiths are moving. They sell their house for $600,000. Now, write a guess down on a piece of paper as to whether or not the Johnson's think the Smiths got too much for their house. Now go to the Johnsons and ask them if the Smiths sold their house for too much money, but before you do, stab yourself in the pee hole with an ice pick.
And one more thing (sorry): It might be fair market value, but Ryan Howard isn't on the market. Which, you know, kinda matters.
As boring as it sounds, it was a good deal for both sides.
BORING!! Lets light a fire under this bitch! More exclamation points!!! More CAPITALIZATION!! The Phillies SCREWED UP!! WHAT WAS RYAN HOWARD THINKING?!?!
There are those suggesting Howard won't be the player at the end of the deal, when he'll be 36, that he is now, and that isn't an unreasonable prediction. But A-Rod, for example, will be 42 when his contract will be up, and besides, that guess can be made about many long-term deals. One GM said five years isn't outrageous at all and actually praised Howard for not being greedy and insisting on seven or eight.
Let's paraphrase that paragraph:
'Some "people" if you want to call them that, say Ryan Howard won't be as good in seven years when he's 36 years old. They base that on stats or history or something. But some other guy who this whole thing isn't even about and who isn't even 36 now will be really old when his contract is up. Also, all long term deals are dumb even though this one isn't. And a guy I talked to doesn't think Howard is greedy. So suck on that proof, "people!" '
That Howard received $2 million more than Teixeira also seems about right under the circumstances. Teixeira has a more diverse set of skills, is slightly younger and signed in New York as a free agent...
"Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I come before you to declare the defendant innocent! Sure he killed his family. Sure, he tied them up and ate them slowly with a spork over the course of a month. Sure he put a sign up on his door that said, "Do not disturb. Cannibal at work." which was written in blood...
...but he [Teixeira] couldn't make a case that he has the same offensive impact as Howard, a classic slugger.
...but he's innocent! Thank you very much."
With the $39 million Howard is making this year and next on his current deal, that means he'll get $164 million though 2016, or just $16 million less than the eight-year contract Teixeira signed with the Yankees. Teixeira's defense is superior, but considering all the variables, $164 million isn't unreasonably high for Howard.
I'll give you two replies here.
Serious Reply:
You can't say, "Over this time period which I have randomly selected things don't look so bad." Teixeira signed his deal as a free agent in the middle of a bidding war between the Yankees, the Red Sox, and the Angels. That had a huge impact on the money he ended up making. Ryan Howard didn't come within a year and a half of free agency. There was no bidding war except, apparently, by the Phillies against themselves. These two situations are not remotely comparable.
Non-serious Reply:
Poopy-butt!
But here are a few more reasons Howard is worth this investment:
Oh goody...but before I see Heyman's list, I'll give you my list and then we'll compare them. I bet they're close!
1) Good handshake
2) Can count to 8 in five different languages (if you count Canadian as a language)
3) Thinks the Rolling Stones totally rock
4) Fully potty trained
5) Six words: Best origami goose you ever saw
1) He's showed his value by finishing first, fifth, second and third in MVP voting the last four years.
Crap! I guess our lists are different... sigh... I'll never quit you, Jon Heyman!
There is a group of numbers people who think these finishes don't count, but there is no reason to think Howard was vastly overvalued in the voting.
This sentence could have and probably should have been written by someone with the language and reasoning skills of a seven year old. Numbers people think the finishes don't count? Of course they count. In fact, they are Exhibit 1 by the Ryan Howard IS Overvalued camp. I could get into a big How-are-MVP-awards-decided thing, but I'll spare you, except to say Jon Heyman has a vote.
The folks around his team view him as valuable, as do opposing teams who have intentionally walked him an average of 24 times a year for the last four full seasons.
That is technically true. It is also technically true that Jon Heyman is misleading his readers, many of whom can probably do simple math. To wit: Ryan Howard's intentional walk totals over the last four years:
2006: 37
2007: 35
2008: 17
2009: 8
Notice a pattern there?
2) He also has averaged 49.5 home runs and 143 RBIs over the past four years, far more than anyone else. Everyone agrees that home runs are an important stat, but to those who believe RBIs are only a reflection of one's teammates, and thus pure luck, here are the top five RBI leaders since 1900: Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Lou Gehrig and Stan Musial. Five very lucky fellows.
Wow.*
* Plaschke Paragraph!!
Lets try to go over the logical leaps made by Mr. Heyman in the preceding paragraph.
a) Ryan Howard averages 49.5 homers and 143 RBIs over the past four years.
- With you so far.
b) Far more than anyone else.
- Well... fine. Its not worth fighting about. Continue.
c) Some people believe RBIs are only a reflection of a player's team mates.
- True.
d) Those people are really goblins.
- Of course.
e) Goblin-people believe RBIs are pure luck.
- This is where I gotta stop you, Heyman. Nobody said RBIs are pure luck. RBI opportunities are team dependent. The more RBI opportunities a player has the more RBIs they are likely to get. RBI opportunities come when, and stop me if you've heard this before, players are on base when you come to bat. So, it would stand to reason that - and I'm going to stay very general here - the better the players are on your team, the more chances you have to hit with men on base. So, the more chances you have to hit with men on base, the more chances you have to drive those men in.*
Too complicated? Fine. We'll stick with 'goblin-people believe they're pure luck' then.
*Don't believe me? Put Ryan Howard on the Pirates and tell me he'll still average 143 RBIs over the last four years. Now do it again, but this time, stop lying.
f) The top five RBI leaders since 1900: Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Lou Gehrig and Stan Musial.
- Indisputably great hitters all. Also, their ranks all time in number of games played: Aaron 3rd, Musial 6th, Bonds 10th. Ruth and Gehrig both played for probably the greatest offensive team in the history of baseball. The Yankees of the '20s and '30s were so good that even when they led off an inning there was always someone on base.
g) Aaron, Ruth, Bonds, Gehrig and Musial are five very lucky fellows.
- You, sir, are kind of a dick.
3) It isn't unreasonable to suggest Howard might decline during his extension. As a matter of logic, he probably will. But the evidence isn't strong that he's declining yet, (his 2009 slugging percentage of .571 wasn't significantly different from his .582 career mark), and even if he does suffer a slight drop off, it's from a tremendous height (his 198 home runs over the past four years are 29 more than everyone else).
I don't know who is saying Howard is in decline. I'm certainly not. The issue isn't whether he's declining now anyway. Its will he decline when the extension kicks in or soon thereafter?
Plus, he's shown he's serious about his game and his body. He has lost an estimated 30 pounds and remarkably turned himself into at least an average defensive first baseman from something a lot less than that.
This is true and Howard deserves lots of credit for his hard work.
So in that way, he's actually on the rise.
Howard's OPS the last four years:
2006: 1.084
2007: .976
2008: .881
2009: .931
Yeah, nope.
4) He's a winner...
So is Claude Francois and I don't see anyone throwing $125 million at him.
...and a major part of one of the strongest lineups in baseball. Why mess with a good thing?
Why mess with a good thing? Now there's an argument!
Phillies GM, Ruben Amaro, Jr.: Ryan Howard is an excellent player and we love having him here with the Phillies, but your proposal of $25 million a year for five years beginning two years from now is completely insane. There's no precedent for it and whats more, Ryan is a Phillie for two more years. Why in the world would we agree to that?
Casey Close, Ryan Howard's Agent: Why mess with a good thing?
Amaro: OK, lets do it!
5) The market could explode. The economy is improving, baseball is doing great and the appetite for superstars on the free-agent market is always strong, even in down times like the past couple years. "You can't really pinpoint what these guys could be getting on the open market,'' Boggs said, honestly. That's true, but that allows for the possibility it could go way up.
Way up? Like past $25 million a year?
Here's a list of the top five deals by AAV:
1. Roger Clemens, $28,000,022 (2007)
2. Alex Rodriguez, $27,500,000 (2008-17)
3. Alex Rodriguez, $25,200,000 (2001-10)
4. Ryan Howard, $25,000,000 (2012-16)
5(t). Joe Mauer, $23,000,000 (2011-18)
5(t). C.C. Sabathia, $23,000,000 (2009-15)
So Howard is fourth. All time. The guy who's first signed in the middle of the year so he didn't collect a full year's salary. And the two guys directly above Howard are actually the same guy. Meaning, Howard is going to be making more money per year than everyone but one guy has ever made.
OK, worst case. Suppose the Phils decide to wait till Howard is a free agent to resign him. Howard hits 55 homers this year and 55 next year. You think the Phils would be laughed out of the room for offering $25 million a year?
Of course there's a chance the market explodes and $25 million a year doesn't seem like too much. There's a chance Howard continues to hit like he has, or even improves. There's a chance he defies the typical aging pattern established through over 100 years of baseball history.
By themselves each isn't more than a 50/50 proposition. Taken together, its a long shot, but there's a chance that all those things happen. But here's the question: Do you want to put a $125 million down on it? Jon Heyman does, which should probably be your answer right there.
.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Stanley Cup Playoffs Picks Pool, Round 2: "Primus Inter Feces"
Loosely translated, "first among shit." That would be me.
First, round 2 is nigh. SJ/DET kicks off tomorrow night (Thursday). Here yo matchupz:
Eastern Conference
4 Pittsburgh
8 Montreal
6 Boston
7 Philadelphia
Western Conference
1 San Jose
5 Detroit
2 Chicago
3 Vancouver
As for the opening round, really, it woulda been impossible for any of us to predict more than 6 of these series correctly, which is the most anyone got right. Moving on in the Eastern Conference, we have the #4, #6, #7, and #8 seeds. Out West, it was a bit more chalky, but a bunch of us were rooting for the Kings and Coyotes -- or against the Canuckleheads and Red Wangs -- and picked accordingly.
An ill-timed announcement: We're through with the convoluted seven-point sliding-scale scoring system, battle-tested though it is. I'm too busy to fuck around with an Excel spreadsheet.
Last year at the Landing, we ran a separate pool with the simplified scoring system we're gonna use here now: 1 point for correctly predicting the winner, 1 extra point for getting the number of games correct. It pretty much worked out the same way as the complicated scoring system as far as rewarding good predictions, and it was actually easier to make up ground with the 1-point system than it is with the double-scoring in the later rounds we were using here. So F it.
Here be da scorez:
BMFS
PIT in 7 -- 1
PHI in 6 -- 1
BUF in 5 -- 0
WAS in 4 -- 0
SJ in 5 -- 1
CHI in 5 -- 1
VAN in 6 -- 2
DET in 6 -- 1
Total = 7
_______
Bill
Caps-6 -- 0
Devils-6 -- 0
Buff-5 -- 0
Pitt-5 -- 1
S.J.-5 -- 1
Chi-6 -- 2
Van-7 -- 1
Red Fucks-6 -- 1
Total = 6
_______
Clint
PIT in 5 -- 1
NJ in 5 -- 0
BUF in 6 -- 0
WAS in 5 -- 0
VAN in 5 -- 1
SJ in 6 -- 2
PHX in 7 -- 0
CHI in 4 -- 1
Total = 5
_______
Snizza
Caps in 4. -- 0
NJ in 7. -- 0
Buffalo in 5. -- 0
Pittsburgh in 5. -- 1
San Jose in 5. -- 1
Chicago in 5. -- 1
Kings in 7. -- 0
Phoenix in 7. -- 0
Total = 3
______
Matty
Washington in 5 -- 0
NJ in 7 -- 0
Buffalo in 6 -- 0
Pittsburgh in 4 -- 1
San Jose in 6 -- 2
Nashville in 6 -- 0
LA Kings in 7 -- 0
Phoenix in 6 -- 0
Total = 3
_______
Yeah, we have only five motherfuckers playing. Weak.
.
First, round 2 is nigh. SJ/DET kicks off tomorrow night (Thursday). Here yo matchupz:
Eastern Conference
4 Pittsburgh
8 Montreal
6 Boston
7 Philadelphia
Western Conference
1 San Jose
5 Detroit
2 Chicago
3 Vancouver
As for the opening round, really, it woulda been impossible for any of us to predict more than 6 of these series correctly, which is the most anyone got right. Moving on in the Eastern Conference, we have the #4, #6, #7, and #8 seeds. Out West, it was a bit more chalky, but a bunch of us were rooting for the Kings and Coyotes -- or against the Canuckleheads and Red Wangs -- and picked accordingly.
An ill-timed announcement: We're through with the convoluted seven-point sliding-scale scoring system, battle-tested though it is. I'm too busy to fuck around with an Excel spreadsheet.
Last year at the Landing, we ran a separate pool with the simplified scoring system we're gonna use here now: 1 point for correctly predicting the winner, 1 extra point for getting the number of games correct. It pretty much worked out the same way as the complicated scoring system as far as rewarding good predictions, and it was actually easier to make up ground with the 1-point system than it is with the double-scoring in the later rounds we were using here. So F it.
Here be da scorez:
BMFS
PIT in 7 -- 1
PHI in 6 -- 1
BUF in 5 -- 0
WAS in 4 -- 0
SJ in 5 -- 1
CHI in 5 -- 1
VAN in 6 -- 2
DET in 6 -- 1
Total = 7
_______
Bill
Caps-6 -- 0
Devils-6 -- 0
Buff-5 -- 0
Pitt-5 -- 1
S.J.-5 -- 1
Chi-6 -- 2
Van-7 -- 1
Red Fucks-6 -- 1
Total = 6
_______
Clint
PIT in 5 -- 1
NJ in 5 -- 0
BUF in 6 -- 0
WAS in 5 -- 0
VAN in 5 -- 1
SJ in 6 -- 2
PHX in 7 -- 0
CHI in 4 -- 1
Total = 5
_______
Snizza
Caps in 4. -- 0
NJ in 7. -- 0
Buffalo in 5. -- 0
Pittsburgh in 5. -- 1
San Jose in 5. -- 1
Chicago in 5. -- 1
Kings in 7. -- 0
Phoenix in 7. -- 0
Total = 3
______
Matty
Washington in 5 -- 0
NJ in 7 -- 0
Buffalo in 6 -- 0
Pittsburgh in 4 -- 1
San Jose in 6 -- 2
Nashville in 6 -- 0
LA Kings in 7 -- 0
Phoenix in 6 -- 0
Total = 3
_______
Yeah, we have only five motherfuckers playing. Weak.
.
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Super Geigh: A One Act Play
Jeter: Guys, the SI photographer will get here any minute now and we don't know how we're going to pose yet.
Posada: How about we all flex our muscles, like this! GRRR!!
Pettitte: No. Besides, I only did steroids so I could recover from my injuries quicker.
All: HA HA HA HA!
Pettitte: I've got an idea! How 'bout we all show off all our World Series rings! Tha'd be awesome!
Rivera: Sorry, guys, but I sold all my rings to pay for my coke habit.
Pettitte: That's a no-go then, huh?
Jeter: Why don't you borrow all of Alex's rings... oh wait!
All: HA HA HA HA!
Rivera: Yeah, sorry 'bout that. [sniff] How about we all hold hands and look towards Heaven to thank our Heavenly Father and his son Jesus for... oh, wait, Jorge's a satanist, so that won't work.
Posada: [sipping from cup of pig entrails] What do you want from me, Mariano?
Pettitte: Hey guys, don't fight. We have to figure this out! Derek, what do you think we should do?
Jeter: Don't worry guys, I got it covered. We're gonna do this...[whispers]
[Photographer arrives]
Photographer: Well...uh... OK, if you're sure that's what you want.
Jeter: Yeah. [pumps fist] Lets do this.
.
Posada: How about we all flex our muscles, like this! GRRR!!
Pettitte: No. Besides, I only did steroids so I could recover from my injuries quicker.
All: HA HA HA HA!
Pettitte: I've got an idea! How 'bout we all show off all our World Series rings! Tha'd be awesome!
Rivera: Sorry, guys, but I sold all my rings to pay for my coke habit.
Pettitte: That's a no-go then, huh?
Jeter: Why don't you borrow all of Alex's rings... oh wait!
All: HA HA HA HA!
Rivera: Yeah, sorry 'bout that. [sniff] How about we all hold hands and look towards Heaven to thank our Heavenly Father and his son Jesus for... oh, wait, Jorge's a satanist, so that won't work.
Posada: [sipping from cup of pig entrails] What do you want from me, Mariano?
Pettitte: Hey guys, don't fight. We have to figure this out! Derek, what do you think we should do?
Jeter: Don't worry guys, I got it covered. We're gonna do this...[whispers]
[Photographer arrives]
Photographer: Well...uh... OK, if you're sure that's what you want.
Jeter: Yeah. [pumps fist] Lets do this.
.Caps In The Playoffs: Round 1, Game 6
I don't have much to say about last night's Caps loss to Montreal other than if the Caps win tomorrow night, nobody will remember Game 6. "Who stopped how many shots? Doesn't matter, they lost the series." Game 6 only matters if the Caps lose tomorrow.
The Caps led the series three games to one. They had two games to blow, and they blew them. So despite losing two in a row, they're even. So tomorrow night is the real thing. Do or die. There are no more games to blow. Only the season.
No goalie, no matter how hot, no matter the team he plays for or the city he plays in, no matter the name on the back of his jersey, can stop a shot they don't see, or one that is deflected at the last possible moment. The Caps have have HAVE to get people in front of Halak. Their season depends on it.
We'll see if they can come out, put a few past Halak and then keep going for sixty minutes. I hope so, but its hard not to have doubts after the last two games.
Oh, and to all the hockey gods reading this, I am so so sorry.
The Caps led the series three games to one. They had two games to blow, and they blew them. So despite losing two in a row, they're even. So tomorrow night is the real thing. Do or die. There are no more games to blow. Only the season.
No goalie, no matter how hot, no matter the team he plays for or the city he plays in, no matter the name on the back of his jersey, can stop a shot they don't see, or one that is deflected at the last possible moment. The Caps have have HAVE to get people in front of Halak. Their season depends on it.
We'll see if they can come out, put a few past Halak and then keep going for sixty minutes. I hope so, but its hard not to have doubts after the last two games.
Oh, and to all the hockey gods reading this, I am so so sorry.
.
Bump Head, Whip Out Wang
What's with the pictures, Wang? It's a Georgia nightclub toilet!Matty and I went to college with a guy who'd suffered severe brain trauma as a kid and, as a result, would experience these ill-timed episodes where he's just go sort of glassy for a minute and then whip out his daddyjunk. (No, we're not going to mention his name.)
And on that note, I present to you Ben Roethlisberger. Carl Prine, investigative reporter for the right-wing rag Pittsburgh Tribune-Review -- best known for his work in revealing shoddy security at US chemical plants in the immediate wake of the 9/11 attacks -- posits the possibility that Ben's socially unacceptable behavior may be a result of his multiple head injuries.
No way to get the toothpaste back into the tube on this one, folks.
.
Monday, April 26, 2010
My Predictions Are Like My Asshole: They Smell Like Poop
Here's a picture of me. Ain't I handsome?There have been many famous predictions in sports. Babe Ruth calling his shot against the Cubs. Joe Nameth calling the upset over the heavily favored Colts in Superbowl III.
This will not trump* all of them.
* Copyright 2010, Donald Trump Enterprises
Tonight, the Capitals will beat the Canadiens in Montreal. In the words of a great American, write it down, take a picture, stick the picture up your ass. Its gonna happen. Done deal.
Sure the Caps played listless hockey in Game 5. Sure the game is in Montreal, probably the biggest home ice advantage in hockey. Sure all the momentum is squarely - or whatever the metric version of a square is - on the Canadiens' side.
Doesn't matter.
I'm taking off my lucky amulet, I'm flushing my rabbit's foot down the toilet, and I'm pulling that four leaf clover out of my penis hole (finally!). That's right, peeps, my cards be on da table.
Caps 4, Canadiens 1. Read 'em and weep.
.
Sunday, April 25, 2010
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Be Careful What You Wish For
For embattled Redskins quarterback Jason Campbell, change couldn't come soon enough. Campbell spoke to the Washington Post in the days leading up to the draft and openly asked to be traded. This isn't news because as soon as news hit that Donovan McNabb was going to be in DC, Campbell's agent asked the team if he could facilitate a trade as well. The Redskins said sure. So Campbell wanted to leave, his agent wanted him to leave and the team wanted him gone. That's called The Writing Is On The Wall.
Today Campbell (and his agent and the team) got his wish. Yes, the Redskins traded Jason Campbell to the...
[wait for it]
[wait for it]
...Oakland Raiders.
For what appears to be a 4th round draft pick in 2012. Of course as bad as the Raiders play that fourth round pick could be in the upper second round by the time 2012 comes along.*
* No, it couldn't.
You may recall, though I'm not sure why, the Redskins drafted Campbell in the first round (29th overall) in the 2005 draft. But not only did they burn a first rounder on him, they traded up to get Campbell. The Skins gave up their '06 first rounder and third rounder and a third rounder in '05 for the right to burn an '05 first rounder. Yikes. Simply shocking Vinny Ceratto isn't around anymore.
While the Jason Campbell era is over in DC - and thank goodness for that - Campbell's legacy shouldn't be one of personal failure. While reading the Post's write up on the Campbell trade, I was surprised, no, shocked to learn these facts about Campbell's tenure as top QB in DC:
* No quarterback started more games for Washington (32) since Mark Rypien from 1989 to 1993.
* Campbell is sixth all time in franchise history in passing yardage (10,860)
* He is fifth all time in completions
* He is second all time in completion percentage
Those are surprising stats. They probably speak a little to the lack of franchise quarterbacks in Redskins history and a little to the fact that Campbell has managed to stay on the field a lot, despite the best efforts of his coaches and team management.
Onward and upward for the Redskins and Jason Campbell. Personally, I wish Campbell only the best in Oakland. He's been a stand up guy in DC and while he has some flaws in his game, nobody despite all the infighting that has punctuated his time in Washington has said a bad word about him.
Best of luck in Oakland, Jason. You're gonna need it.
Today Campbell (and his agent and the team) got his wish. Yes, the Redskins traded Jason Campbell to the...
[wait for it]
[wait for it]
...Oakland Raiders.
For what appears to be a 4th round draft pick in 2012. Of course as bad as the Raiders play that fourth round pick could be in the upper second round by the time 2012 comes along.*
* No, it couldn't.
You may recall, though I'm not sure why, the Redskins drafted Campbell in the first round (29th overall) in the 2005 draft. But not only did they burn a first rounder on him, they traded up to get Campbell. The Skins gave up their '06 first rounder and third rounder and a third rounder in '05 for the right to burn an '05 first rounder. Yikes. Simply shocking Vinny Ceratto isn't around anymore.
While the Jason Campbell era is over in DC - and thank goodness for that - Campbell's legacy shouldn't be one of personal failure. While reading the Post's write up on the Campbell trade, I was surprised, no, shocked to learn these facts about Campbell's tenure as top QB in DC:
* No quarterback started more games for Washington (32) since Mark Rypien from 1989 to 1993.
* Campbell is sixth all time in franchise history in passing yardage (10,860)
* He is fifth all time in completions
* He is second all time in completion percentage
Those are surprising stats. They probably speak a little to the lack of franchise quarterbacks in Redskins history and a little to the fact that Campbell has managed to stay on the field a lot, despite the best efforts of his coaches and team management.
Onward and upward for the Redskins and Jason Campbell. Personally, I wish Campbell only the best in Oakland. He's been a stand up guy in DC and while he has some flaws in his game, nobody despite all the infighting that has punctuated his time in Washington has said a bad word about him.
Best of luck in Oakland, Jason. You're gonna need it.
.
Friday, April 23, 2010
Caps In The Playoffs: Round 1, Game 4
Well that sucked.
If you thought the Caps might come out with some sense of urgency, you'd be wrong. If you thought the Canadiens were going to give up, you'd be wrong.
But, if you thought the Caps power play would continue to suck the shit out of dead man's ass, you'd be right. If you thought Alex Semin and Mike Green would continue to make us all wonder why they're getting any ice time, you'd be right. If you thought the Caps would score one measly goal the whole game despite five power play opportunities you'd again be right.
In three games in Washington, the Caps are 1-2 with their one win coming on overtime. In two games in Montreal, the Caps are 2-0 and have out scored Montreal 11-4. Monday night, Game 6 will be played in Montreal. So I guess that's something.
But I'll tell you this. If the Caps are lackadaisical in the first period again, or take the second period off, or think some magic third period mojo will carry them to victory, Game 7 will be played in DC on Wednesday.
The Caps didn't play a completely worthless 60 minutes of hockey tonight. They just got out-fought, out-worked, and generally out-played by a team that - and I keep coming back to this - is by all measures not their equal. Some teams play down to the level of competition. Or maybe I'm jaded and the Canadiens are playing up the Caps level of competition. I don't know. I do know that if the Caps don't work harder in Game 6 they'll lose. If they play Game 6 like they played Game 5 they'll lose.
And if they lose Game 6, we're coming back to DC with all the momentum and energy on Montreal's side. I'd rather not see how that works out.
.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Meta-Meta: Rob Neyer, Bryce Harper, And The Difference Between Fiction And Non-Fiction
I'm a fan of Rob Neyer. I read his blog on ESPN - about the only thing I read on ESPN - for his cogent and intelligent commentary. Even when I don't agree with him, though most of the time I do, I appreciate his point of view and the way he presented it. Which is why I was particularly surprised at a blog entry of Neyer's today.
In case you haven't read The Sweet Spot (Neyer's blog), Neyer likes to point towards other commentary on the web and then agree or disagree with the author, or use it as a jumping off point for a discussion. In this particular instance, Neyer quotes baseballprospectus.com's resident prospect guru Kevin Goldstein, who wrote an article about Bryce Harper, the presumed number one overall pick in the next baseball draft. In the article, Goldstein discusses four issues about Harper which could prevent the Nationals from picking him first.
Neyer focuses on the fourth, titled, "The Makeup". Here's the money quote from Goldstein, which Neyer also quotes in his blog post:
While this is some damning stuff, the sabremetric community, of which Neyer is most certainly a member (he got his start in baseball writing as an assistant to Bill James) has often, if not frowned on makeup, then at least openly questioned it. The basic point is that a guy can be a dick, but if he can hit or pitch then he's helping his team win, which is the whole point. More specifically the sabremetric community often frowns on things it can't quantify and you can't quantify some one's makeup.
So Neyer is skeptical of how important it is that Bryce Harper is "a bad bad guy". Neyer goes on to say:
Agreed. Talent is a must. Niceness isn't. I'm with Neyer up to this point. But then Neyer goes on and this is where he loses me:
Neyer is making an analogy, but its a false one because its based on a fictional character's actions. Because the character is fictional, a literal reading of the book won't tell us about human nature.
I'm not saying we can't learn about people from novels, but there isn't the direct simple relationship there that Neyer is suggesting. John Barr's MVP awards, his World Series titles, his personality, and the way others react to him are all fictional. To be blunt, they never happened. Barr, a fictional character in a book, can't instruct us on Bryce Harper, a real person doing real things. Or if he can, then it isn't in this direct type of way.
Maybe Neyer is right about a player's makeup (I tend to think he is) but using a fictional example to make your point is either lazy or ignorant. Neyer isn't either, which is why this blog post was disappointing.
.
In case you haven't read The Sweet Spot (Neyer's blog), Neyer likes to point towards other commentary on the web and then agree or disagree with the author, or use it as a jumping off point for a discussion. In this particular instance, Neyer quotes baseballprospectus.com's resident prospect guru Kevin Goldstein, who wrote an article about Bryce Harper, the presumed number one overall pick in the next baseball draft. In the article, Goldstein discusses four issues about Harper which could prevent the Nationals from picking him first.
Neyer focuses on the fourth, titled, "The Makeup". Here's the money quote from Goldstein, which Neyer also quotes in his blog post:
It's impossible to find any talent evaluator who isn't blown away by Harper's ability on the field, but it's equally difficult to find one who doesn't genuinely dislike the kid. One scout called him among the worst amateur players he's ever seen from a makeup standpoint, with top-of-the-scale arrogance, a disturbingly large sense of entitlement, and on-field behavior that includes taunting opponents. "He's just a bad, bad guy," said one front-office official. "He's basically the anti-Joe Mauer."
While this is some damning stuff, the sabremetric community, of which Neyer is most certainly a member (he got his start in baseball writing as an assistant to Bill James) has often, if not frowned on makeup, then at least openly questioned it. The basic point is that a guy can be a dick, but if he can hit or pitch then he's helping his team win, which is the whole point. More specifically the sabremetric community often frowns on things it can't quantify and you can't quantify some one's makeup.
So Neyer is skeptical of how important it is that Bryce Harper is "a bad bad guy". Neyer goes on to say:
When evaluating young baseball players, teams have to separate their desires into "need-to-haves" and "like-to-haves." When you have the first pick in the draft, you need to have a great deal of confidence in a young player's talent. You'd like to have someone with Joe Mauer's personality. But how many Joe Mauers are there, really?
Agreed. Talent is a must. Niceness isn't. I'm with Neyer up to this point. But then Neyer goes on and this is where he loses me:
And I think it's important to precisely define "makeup," which in this case seems to cover Harper's interactions with other human beings. I just started reading a novel about maybe the greatest player in major league history. In 12 seasons he wins seven MVP Awards, three Triple Crowns, etc. The guy has no (apparent) personality, though. Communicates mostly with stares and grunts. Doesn't seem to have any friends. Doesn't take any sort of instruction from his managers or coaches. Shows up at spring training early or late, depending on some sort of instinctual migration impulse.
That sort of behavior might qualify John Barr for the "bad makeup" tag. Throw a Milo on him. Except in those 12 seasons, his team (the Mets, actually) wins nine division titles and five World Series.
Neyer is making an analogy, but its a false one because its based on a fictional character's actions. Because the character is fictional, a literal reading of the book won't tell us about human nature.
I'm not saying we can't learn about people from novels, but there isn't the direct simple relationship there that Neyer is suggesting. John Barr's MVP awards, his World Series titles, his personality, and the way others react to him are all fictional. To be blunt, they never happened. Barr, a fictional character in a book, can't instruct us on Bryce Harper, a real person doing real things. Or if he can, then it isn't in this direct type of way.
Maybe Neyer is right about a player's makeup (I tend to think he is) but using a fictional example to make your point is either lazy or ignorant. Neyer isn't either, which is why this blog post was disappointing.
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Caps In The Playoffs: Round 1, Game 4
How appropriate would it be for a guy who is both a Capitals fan and a Red Sox fan to declare a post season series over before it actually ends? That's a special kind of hubris right there. That's asking the hockey gods to smite the crap out of you. And yet, it seems everywhere I look, everything's coming up Milhouse.
Once again, thanks to the NHL's ridiculous national TV situation, I didn't have a chance to watch the Caps 6-3 defeat of the Canadiens last night. In contrast to last game where I was treated to the first few innings of Nationals/Rockies before the Canadiens announcers were mercifully put on, this time though I was able to listen to the Caps radio broadcast of the entire game. So I had that going for me, which was nice.
There are any number of better write-ups of the game available on the web, so I won't subject you to one from someone who didn't even see the game, but the global view is this: nothing is decided yet. Sure Varly played out of him mind in the second period and the Caps finally managed a power play goal while they were on the power play, but on Friday the Caps will have to end the Canadiens season. So they best come out like they want to get it done, or it won't.
The Caps 6-3 win over Montreal last night puts them in a position to close out the series tomorrow, Friday, in five games. That is nice and all, but in an odd coincidence the Flyers, Bruins and Penguins are all in the same position. Because all the series in the conference are at 3-1 and could therefore end in five games, the Caps need to close out the series in five as well or face a more rested team in the next round.
Did I say the next round? Stranger things have happened, but with two of the three games left in DC and and the way the series has gone so far, you have to think the Caps can win one of the next two. Montreal has two goalies who can't stop the puck and the Canadiens simply can't match up against Washington in 5-on-5 situations. Come to think of it, the Caps have two short-handed goals so Montreal isn't matching up when they're on the power play either.
The Caps haven't played perfect hockey by any stretch but they've played well enough when they needed to, and now they have the opportunity to put Montreal away and move on. They need to seize it.
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Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Your Yearly Moronic Waste Of Time!
Each year the NFL releases their schedule and each year complete idiots stop paying attention to baseball and playoff hockey to go through their favorite team’s schedule and assign wins and losses to each game. Other than painting your car with a pitchfork, it’s as stupid a waste of time as I can come up with. So lets run through next year’s Redskins schedule and assign wins and losses to each game! Just like last year! Yay!
Sunday, Sep 12 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Loss (0-1)
Game Notes: McNabb caps opening drive of the season with a 15 yard TD run. To celebrate he head butts FedEx Field wall... Romo throws five touchdown passes, four over the head of DeAngelo Hall who, on the fifth one, seems to waive. In post-game interview, Hall predicts Redskins will win Super Bowl.
Sunday, Sep 19 vs. Houston Texans
Pick: Loss (0-2)
Game Notes: With score 31-3 at halftime, Kyle Shanahan asks Gary Kubiak if he can have his old job back... While making a diving interception on the sidelines, Carlos Rodgers lands on McNabb's ankle causing Shanahan to throw his dentures to the ground... Team leaves field to chorus of boos. Shanahan assures Dan Snyder fans are actually saying, "BoooYayRedskins!"
Sunday, Sep 26 at St. Louis Rams
Pick: Win (1-2)
Game Notes: McNabb throws first touchdown pass as a Redskin to Chris Cooley's penis... Carlos Rodgers drops first interception of the season. I set my watch... Larry Johnson plays game in pope bubble because he "don't wanna touch no gays".
Sunday, Oct 3 at Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Loss (1-3)
Game Notes: McNabb begins openly weeping as he is booed mercilessly by Eagle fans still drunk from last week's game... Kevin "Kux" Kolb throws four interceptions but all are dropped by Carlos Rodgers who's biceps are too big for him to bring hands together. In post-game presser between bites of sausage, Andy Reid hails Kolb as best quarterback since he can remember.
Sunday, Oct 10 vs. Green Bay Packers
Pick: Loss (1-4)
Game Notes: Packers sack McNabb 17 times, but Willie Parker steals the show, garnering -56 yards on 18 carries. Clinton Portis gets two carries in a chiffon dress with sequins. Aaron Rogers hits Carlos Rogers in the chest three times in apparent attempt to help out fellow Rogers. Sadly, Carlos can't catch with his chest either.
Sunday, Oct 17 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Loss (1-5)
Game Notes: Game opens amidst optimism as Colts are without star QB Peyton Manning who is sitting out as Colts have already locked up home field throughout the playoffs. Jason Campbell comes off Colts bench and throws 8 TD passes. Redskins leave field to chant of "Lets Go Caps!"
Sunday, Oct 24 at Chicago Bears
Pick: Win (2-5)
Game Notes: Redskins pick off Jay Cutler four times before Cutler tries the old hide-the-ball-between-my-chins trick. Unfortunately for Cutler he had also hidden several brownies and a cupcake in there as well and Haynesworth sniffs it out. All is not rosy for Redskins though as McNabb is injured when all five of his offensive linemen are knocked on top of him simultaneously. At this point many Redskins fans join me in a good cry.
Sunday, Oct 31 at Detroit Lions
Pick: Loss (2-6)
Game Notes: Lions make it two in a row over the Redskins as someone who suspiciously looks like Jim Zorn can be heard over the TV mics laughing from the stands. Carlos Rogers finally manages to intercept a pass whereupon he promptly fumbles it. Carlos Rogers has bad hands.
Monday, Nov 15 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Loss (2-7)
Game Notes: McNabb gets standing ovation as he takes the field on a stretcher wearing a full body cast. He is promptly sacked. Rex Grossman comes in and throws 10 interceptions, but on the bright side, two of them go to Carlos Rogers. Kevin "If The Over/Under On When Chris Berman Uses The Nickname "Corn On The" Is Two Weeks Or More, Take The Under" Kolb plays fine.
Sunday, Nov 21 at Tennessee Titans
Pick: Loss (2-8)
Game Notes: Clinton Portis gets first carry since Week 5. He gains six yards and does a dance... Albert Haynesworth plays four downs in the first half and during halftime is traded back to Tennessee. He has five sacks in the second half. Newly acquired Titans QB Jason Campbell throws 5 TD passes.
Sunday, Nov 28 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Loss (2-9)
Game Notes: First Sexy Rexy chant is heard after Grossman completes four passes in a row. He also completes the fifth, but its to a Vikings lineman. Larry Johnson carries ten times for eleven yards. After the game he complains he didn't get the rock enough.
Sunday, Dec 5 at New York Giants
Pick: Loss (2-10)
Game Notes: Eli Manning throws eight interceptions, all of which are dropped by various Redskins. OK, all by Carlos Rogers. Then he throws a hail mary at the end of the half which is caught for a TD. Announcers spend halftime fellating him.
Sunday, Dec 12 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Win (3-10)
Game Notes: Rex Grossman throws three TDs and Larry Johnson runs for 100 yards. Clearly Shanahan's plan is working... Tony Kornheiser writes column in which he considers bringing the bandwagon out of hiding. He is promptly murdered by Snizza.
Sunday, Dec 19 at Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Loss (3-11)
Game Notes: Before the game a video surfaces showing a drunken Jerry Jones calling new Cowboys QB Tim Tebow, "Gayer than Jesus." He later apologizes, saying he was taken out of context. Cowboys whip Redskins collective ass anyway.
Sunday, Dec 26 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Loss (3-12)
Game Notes: McNabb attempts to come back from injuries but injures hamstring in opening huddle. After play Redskins trade him back to Eagles for a 2015 seventh round pick.
Sunday, Jan 2 vs. New York Giants
Pick: Loss (3-13)
Game Notes: Every throw Eli Manning makes glaces off some part of Carlos Rogers and is caught by a Giants receiver. Manning goes 30-30 for 450 yards and 5 touchdowns.*
* Yes, this is taken word for word from last year's article. I thought it was funny then and I think its funny now. Sue me.
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Sunday, Sep 12 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Loss (0-1)
Game Notes: McNabb caps opening drive of the season with a 15 yard TD run. To celebrate he head butts FedEx Field wall... Romo throws five touchdown passes, four over the head of DeAngelo Hall who, on the fifth one, seems to waive. In post-game interview, Hall predicts Redskins will win Super Bowl.
Sunday, Sep 19 vs. Houston Texans
Pick: Loss (0-2)
Game Notes: With score 31-3 at halftime, Kyle Shanahan asks Gary Kubiak if he can have his old job back... While making a diving interception on the sidelines, Carlos Rodgers lands on McNabb's ankle causing Shanahan to throw his dentures to the ground... Team leaves field to chorus of boos. Shanahan assures Dan Snyder fans are actually saying, "BoooYayRedskins!"
Sunday, Sep 26 at St. Louis Rams
Pick: Win (1-2)
Game Notes: McNabb throws first touchdown pass as a Redskin to Chris Cooley's penis... Carlos Rodgers drops first interception of the season. I set my watch... Larry Johnson plays game in pope bubble because he "don't wanna touch no gays".
Sunday, Oct 3 at Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Loss (1-3)
Game Notes: McNabb begins openly weeping as he is booed mercilessly by Eagle fans still drunk from last week's game... Kevin "Kux" Kolb throws four interceptions but all are dropped by Carlos Rodgers who's biceps are too big for him to bring hands together. In post-game presser between bites of sausage, Andy Reid hails Kolb as best quarterback since he can remember.
Sunday, Oct 10 vs. Green Bay Packers
Pick: Loss (1-4)
Game Notes: Packers sack McNabb 17 times, but Willie Parker steals the show, garnering -56 yards on 18 carries. Clinton Portis gets two carries in a chiffon dress with sequins. Aaron Rogers hits Carlos Rogers in the chest three times in apparent attempt to help out fellow Rogers. Sadly, Carlos can't catch with his chest either.
Sunday, Oct 17 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Loss (1-5)
Game Notes: Game opens amidst optimism as Colts are without star QB Peyton Manning who is sitting out as Colts have already locked up home field throughout the playoffs. Jason Campbell comes off Colts bench and throws 8 TD passes. Redskins leave field to chant of "Lets Go Caps!"
Sunday, Oct 24 at Chicago Bears
Pick: Win (2-5)
Game Notes: Redskins pick off Jay Cutler four times before Cutler tries the old hide-the-ball-between-my-chins trick. Unfortunately for Cutler he had also hidden several brownies and a cupcake in there as well and Haynesworth sniffs it out. All is not rosy for Redskins though as McNabb is injured when all five of his offensive linemen are knocked on top of him simultaneously. At this point many Redskins fans join me in a good cry.
Sunday, Oct 31 at Detroit Lions
Pick: Loss (2-6)
Game Notes: Lions make it two in a row over the Redskins as someone who suspiciously looks like Jim Zorn can be heard over the TV mics laughing from the stands. Carlos Rogers finally manages to intercept a pass whereupon he promptly fumbles it. Carlos Rogers has bad hands.
Monday, Nov 15 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Loss (2-7)
Game Notes: McNabb gets standing ovation as he takes the field on a stretcher wearing a full body cast. He is promptly sacked. Rex Grossman comes in and throws 10 interceptions, but on the bright side, two of them go to Carlos Rogers. Kevin "If The Over/Under On When Chris Berman Uses The Nickname "Corn On The" Is Two Weeks Or More, Take The Under" Kolb plays fine.
Sunday, Nov 21 at Tennessee Titans
Pick: Loss (2-8)
Game Notes: Clinton Portis gets first carry since Week 5. He gains six yards and does a dance... Albert Haynesworth plays four downs in the first half and during halftime is traded back to Tennessee. He has five sacks in the second half. Newly acquired Titans QB Jason Campbell throws 5 TD passes.
Sunday, Nov 28 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Loss (2-9)
Game Notes: First Sexy Rexy chant is heard after Grossman completes four passes in a row. He also completes the fifth, but its to a Vikings lineman. Larry Johnson carries ten times for eleven yards. After the game he complains he didn't get the rock enough.
Sunday, Dec 5 at New York Giants
Pick: Loss (2-10)
Game Notes: Eli Manning throws eight interceptions, all of which are dropped by various Redskins. OK, all by Carlos Rogers. Then he throws a hail mary at the end of the half which is caught for a TD. Announcers spend halftime fellating him.
Sunday, Dec 12 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Win (3-10)
Game Notes: Rex Grossman throws three TDs and Larry Johnson runs for 100 yards. Clearly Shanahan's plan is working... Tony Kornheiser writes column in which he considers bringing the bandwagon out of hiding. He is promptly murdered by Snizza.
Sunday, Dec 19 at Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Loss (3-11)
Game Notes: Before the game a video surfaces showing a drunken Jerry Jones calling new Cowboys QB Tim Tebow, "Gayer than Jesus." He later apologizes, saying he was taken out of context. Cowboys whip Redskins collective ass anyway.
Sunday, Dec 26 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Loss (3-12)
Game Notes: McNabb attempts to come back from injuries but injures hamstring in opening huddle. After play Redskins trade him back to Eagles for a 2015 seventh round pick.
Sunday, Jan 2 vs. New York Giants
Pick: Loss (3-13)
Game Notes: Every throw Eli Manning makes glaces off some part of Carlos Rogers and is caught by a Giants receiver. Manning goes 30-30 for 450 yards and 5 touchdowns.*
* Yes, this is taken word for word from last year's article. I thought it was funny then and I think its funny now. Sue me.
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Tuesday, April 20, 2010
The Four Five Keys To The Game
[UPDATE BELOW]
The Canadiens website has published a helpful list of the five keys to Game 4. Unfortunately there are only four. Has anyone seen an extra key lying around?
Not to pile on but the fourth key is "Call Someone Out". Yes, apparently publicly insulting a Capitals player will help the Canadiens win Game 4. I guess stupid analysis should be expected from someone who can't count to five.
* * *
Update: This just got more interesting. I'm glad I took the picture above because the Canadiens have re-added the fifth key. Yes, Virginia, apparently there were originally five Five Keys To The Game. They yanked the fifth (actually third) key because, I'm not making this up, the fifth key was "Lose Game 4." WTF?
So one of the Keys to [Winning] the Game is lose the game. That's some meta shit right there.
For those of you who hunger for even more on this most scintillating of topics, the always excellent DC Sports Bog has all the details here.
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You Lost Me This Year, Canada
In my roughly 25 conscious years of following the Washington Capitals, my team has never been this good. Who knows what the Caps will do in the season that counts, but usually things aren't this rosy. Usually the Caps are out by the end of the first round, and if not then they're gone by the conclusion of the second.
Twenty-five odd years of this pattern have given me many opportunities to root for other teams after the inevitable occurs. Without exception I throw my worthless allegiance behind which ever Canadian team remains. Canada invented ice hockey after all, and I'm fairly certain winning the Cup means much more to those in the Great White North than it does to any residents of the Sun Belt.
I won't be doing that this year.
Before Game 3 yesterday, The Star Spangled Banner was booed by a large enough cross section of the fans at Montreal's Bell Centre that it was quite noticeable. I don't appreciate hearing my national anthem booed by anyone (whether its a mediocre drinking song or not), which includes a bunch of sad drunken Canadiens fans.
A point of fact that certainly these morons missed is that four of their players are American citizens. How do you think Scott Gomez (Anchorage, AK), Brian Gionta (Rochester, NY), Hal Gill (Concord, MA), and Paul Mara (Ridgewood, NJ) felt hearing their fans boo their country's anthem?
Maybe I'm painting with too big a brush here. Vancouver fans didn't boo the anthem, and neither did those in Ottawa. Its a small point in either case. Who gives a crap who I root for? Nonetheless, booing the American anthem was unnecessarily disrespectful to the Capitals (most of whom aren't from the US), to Caps fans, and to the Habs who are from America. So if the Caps pull their yearly disappearing act, I'm sorry, but I won't be rooting for the Canadian team.
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Monday, April 19, 2010
Caps In The Playoffs: Round 1, Game 3
Didn't see a second of Caps/Canadiens Game 3, but I was able to, through the magic of the series of tubes known as the interwebs, listen to the Montreal broadcast of the game. Vive les Canadiens!
Why? The game wasn't on national TV so I had to resort to the radio broadcast. Usually the Caps radio broadcast is available free at the Caps website. The link was there tonight, but nobody had communicated to the Caps that the radio station which broadcasts their games was contractually obligated to carry the Nationals/Rockies game. So, when I clicked the link to "Listen to the game here!" I got Craig Stammen throwing to Clint Barmes. Doh! Where in the [deleted by network] is the [deleted by network] Capitals [deleted by network] game?!
Sometime early in the second period the Caps corrected the problem. Sort of. And that's how I got to listen to the Montreal broadcast. As if you couldn't guess, the Montreal announcers are huge homers. Shocking I know. When ever the Caps scored the lead announcer (I never did catch his name) would say something like this, "GREEN STEALS THE PUCK!!! PASSES TO FEHR!!! WHO scores."
Anyway, the Caps finally got the result that everyone was expecting tonight, winning 5-1. They knocked Jaroslav Halak out after scoring thrice in the second period, then Ovechkin added a fourth against Carey Price.
Not seeing the game I have no idea who played well, but judging by the Canadiens announcer's voices, Semyon Varlamov had a great game. Many times there was lots of shouting followed by a meek "Varlamov makes the save."
In the big picture the Caps are back in control of this series. They have home ice back. To win the series they need to win two of the next four. If they can beat Montreal in Game 4 on Wednesday, they'll have a 3-1 stranglehold on the series, needing one more win with three to go, two of which are at home.
Winning Game 3 is great. Taking a series lead is great. But this is the first round against the 8th seeded team. Winning 5-1 is what they were supposed to do. I don't know of anyone who picked the anything other than Caps in four or five, which means at the bear minimum everyone expects the Caps to win the next two.
We're not at the point of looking past Montreal yet. This was a good and convincing win. Hopefully the Caps have a few more like this in the tank. We'll have to wait to see if it carries over to Wednesday's game.
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Sunday, April 18, 2010
Kevin GarNutz - the NBA's Greatest Frontrunner
(Plaschke paragraph for added effect)
Unless the player they're criticizing is an insufferable nutjammer.
Yesterday, with just :40 to go in game 1 of the Boston Celtics – Miami Heat series, Kevin GarNutz finally crossed the line completely and became the President of Assfuckistan, with Paul Pierce as his Minister of Theatrical Arts.
First Pierce added to his acting resume by feigning epileptic seizure and collapsing in a heap in front of the Heat bench, and then GarNutz instigated a near brawl by going in to the bench area, elbowing Heat guard Quentin Richardson in the head and then fleeing like the bitch he is. GarNutz was basically on the Heat bench acting like it was his turf, he's lucky Jamaal Magloire didn't earn his entire salary for the year with one swift punch to KG's woofing mouf.
If the league has any balls, GarNutz will be suspended for the next game, and I'm thinking that league officials, like many players, have had about enough of The Old Ticket's so-called “gamesmanship” and "intensity."
Richardson leaped about 956 spots on my list of favorite athlete when he immediately called out both GarNutz and Pierce after the game:
"Garnett is an actress and so is Paul,” Richardson said. ”I was going to take the ball out over there. That was what I was trying to do. I told our trainer Jay [Sabol] that [Pierce] is cool and he’s doing what he always do, lay down like it’s a season-ending injury, then he gets up and he’s miraculously fine. He gets a breath, takes his time or whatever and he did the same thing.
”It should be a suspension [for Garnett]. We’ll see. That’s up to the NBA. But I’ve seen things like that in the past and people get suspended. I was cool. I was going to try going at him, but with me being restrained, that’s what it was.”
Fuck ya!
Immediately after the altercation, I Tweeted that Pierce was one of the all-time actresses in any sport and I've been calling GarNutz a front-running fraud for the past few years. Even when he won a title with the Celts I thought he was full of shit and crossed in to near WWE territory with his contrived antics and chest pounding.
And now he's even being called a dirty player – on the record, by Bulls forward Joakim Noah, a player not even in this series:
"I'm going to say it: He's a dirty player," Noah said following Bulls practice Sunday.
Asked if he felt Garnett should be suspended, Noah went even stronger with his criticism.
"I don't make the decisions," Noah said. "But he's always swinging elbows man. I'm hurting right now because of an elbow he threw. It's unbelievable. He's a dirty player. It's one thing to be competitive and compete. But don't be a dirty player man. He's a dirty player. He knows what he's doing," Noah said. "It's messed up. It's wrong. It's not right.”
The preppy sweaters might portray an image of a classy and composed individual, but now the truth about what a certified assjack you are is coming out.
Let me offer a list of GarNutz offences:
-On LaMarcus Aldrige.
-On Marco Belinelli.
-On Andrew Bogut
-Some bullshit on Jarryd Bayless.
-On ZaZa Pachulia. And fuck you Mark Jackson.
-More on ZaZa.
-Some amazingly bullshit woofing AFTER a game he didn't even play in.
-The play that pissed off Noah.
-GarNutz taunting Jose Calderon. What a disgrace.
In just about every video, the Celtics are comfortably in the lead. KG, you are the most classless frontrunner in sports. You get bailed out of an irrelevant franchise and try to live up to expectations in Boston by bringing feigned intensity and toughness. I will take such pleasure in seeing your broken down ass fart and fall down in the playoffs this year.
Let's Get Ready to Ruuuuumble! NBA Western Conference Picks
That's right Kevin, your playoff success is somewhere far away.
Los Angeles vs. Oklahoma City:
I've kind of felt all season that the Lakers have been sandbagging and waiting to get to the playoffs. “Expert” will note how L.A. Went 4-6 over their last 10 games and appear old and tired. I think it's another Phil Jackson rope-a-dope move; they've kept Andrew Bynum on the shelf and Kobe resting. I say the switch gets flipped and the Lakers wake up against the Thunder. The difference in playoff experience is staggering – even OKC's coach, Scott Brooks, hasn't ever sniffed the playoffs and the Thunder will be like a deer in the headlights. Durant will have to deal with Artest (who I also think slept through the season conserving his energy for the playoffs), Odom and Kobe tag-teaming him defensively throughout the series and, while he may get his numbers, it will take far more shot attempts and will take the team out of rhythm. Pau Gasol, Bynum and Odom will play volleyball at the rim and dominate the paint. I love the Thunder's team, but put this will be a series that we'll look back to in a few years when OKC is in the NBA Finals and say, “they got their playoff cherry popped against the defending champion Lakers.”
Lakers in 5.
Dallas vs. San Antonio:
Here e are, round 5 of the Mavericks-Spurs playoff battle. The Spurs won their first two meetings and the Mavs have won the two most recent series, including a five game demolition of San Antonio last year. Manu Ginobili has been playing lights out the past month, but that won't be enough to make up for the Spurs' total inability to control Dirk Nowitzki, who averaged 32 ppg in their meetings this year. The Mavs picked up toughness and athleticism when they traded disgruntled shitstain Josh Howard for Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood and the player I think head coach Rick Carlisle is just starting to lean how to use, DeShawn Stevenson, who I think will have an impact in the playoffs this year. The Spurs acquired Richard Jefferson last summer and he has been a total fraud. The two-headed monster inside for Dallas of Haywood and Erick Dampier will make life for Tim Duncan tough, while the offensive versatility of Dallas – did you know that Jason Kidd made the third-most three pointers in the league this season? - will overwhelm the Spurs. I'm hoping to see the occasional unleashing of the Gunner from Guadaloupe, Roddy Beaubois, to make make Tony Parker work on defense, while talking shit to him in French.
Mavericks in 5.
Phoenix vs. Portland:
No team has looked more impressive entering the post season than the Suns. Steve Nash has that team humming on all cylinders and Amare Stoudemire has been an absolute beast since he made it past the trade deadline and wasn't dealt away. Portland has somehow remained competitive despite losing Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla early in the year and All-Star Brandan Roy late. Roy will miss this series, and that will kill Portland's chances against the Suns – they simply won't be able to score enough to keep up.
Suns in 5.
Denver vs.Utah:
The two teams with the most pronounced home court advantages meet in the first round. Injuries will play a role here as Denver's Kenyon Martin is trying to return from a knee injury and Utah's Carlos Boozer is fighting through a strained oblique and Andrei Kirilenko will likely miss the series with a strained calf. Both teams are stubborn and gritty and I can see a scrap or two as the series plays out. Home court will be the difference though.
Denver in 7.
Caps In The Playoffs: Round 1, Game 2
What to say about that game? The Caps turned water into piss, back into water, back into piss, and finally a minute into OT, into some damn fine pinot noir. We'll look past the continued playoff disappearances of Mike Green, Alex Semin and Jose Theodore, and embrace the fact a win is a win and for intents and purposes the series starts anew Monday night in Montreal.
The game started off somewhat similarly to Game 1 in that the Caps controlled most of the action, but fell behind early anyway. Jose Theodore misplayed or miss-saw or miss-somethinged the first shot Montreal took, a flutterer from well above the left circle. It should have been a save. Instead it was a boot to the nads one minute into the first period. Montreal didn't get another shot on goal until about seven minutes later, but that one went in too.
In fairness to Theodore that one was a bit harder to stop, being a quick snapshot from in between the circles by Andrei Kostitsyn. Still, that was it for Theodore. Caps coach Bruce Boudreau pulled him for Semyon Varlamov. More on that later.
Flash forward to the very end of the second period. The Caps are down 4-1 and I'm busy cleaning little hershey squirts out of my panties in between throwing various items through the dining room and into the kitchen. I call this dark time, "The Caps season looked over, part 1." But then Nicklas Backstrom's shot from behind the circle eluded Halak. 4-2.
The third period began and so did the pressure from the Caps. They squandered a power play opportunity (making them 0-6 in the series) but soon after Ovie pushed the puck through a scrum and through Halak's five hole and across the line. 4-3, and the Verizon Center crowd collectively pooped their pants in excitement. Seven minutes later, Backstrom potted a nifty pass through the crease from Ovechkin. 4-4 and the Caps had battled all the way back. That was too easy. So, just to prove they could do it again, they let Montreal score another one with five minutes left in the game.
With yet another deficit and little time to work the Caps got it done anyway. With 1:20 left Ovechkin's stick was broken and the ref's arm went up. I don't know if that caused the Habs to slow down or not, but the puck wound up on the stick of Backstrom who carried it over the blue line, taking two defensemen with him. He then drop-passed back to 20 year old defensemen John Carlson who took the wrister of his life. It sailed over Halak's glove hand and into the net. 5-5 and Verizon Center smells like the Happy House of Turds.
Then a minute into OT, Backstrom (again again) carried the puck in between the circles and shot it through Roman Hamrlik's legs, over Halak's glove hand (sensing a theme here?), off the crossbar and into the net. Backstrom's third goal ended the game, tied the series and caused it to rain hats.
A couple notes:
* Is Mike Green planning on sitting these playoffs out just like last year? If he's injured or has something else to do I wish he'd tell the coaching staff so they can russell up someone else. Dude is one of the best in the game for 82 games, but this disappearing act come playoff time is getting old.
* Not only do I not know who the Caps starting goalie will be for Game 3, I don't know who the Canadiens starting goalie will be. Caps first: Can Boudreau go back to Theodore? Its not like Varly played all that well. He didn't. He wasn't awful, but he did actually stop a few shots, in fact. I guess I'd start Varlamov, but who the hell knows who Boudreau will start. I'm betting Boudreau doesn't know yet.
* I expect that Halak will stay in net for Montreal, but he wasn't the game stealer in Game 1 that he's been billed as, and he was something far less than his Game 1 self in Game 2. It wouldn't be true to say the Caps scored at will against him, but he did give up 6 goals in just over 60 minutes.
* The Caps defense has got to step it up. You knew the offense would show up eventually, but the defensive corps has made the third worst offense in the Eastern Conference look positively powerful. I don't know the best way to slow Montreal down, but one way would be for the Caps to focus more on puck possession in Game 3. They seemed to be trying the home run pass all too often in the first two games. It worked with Eric Fehr's goal tonight, the Caps first of the game, but I think that's the only time its worked. Mostly it results in the Habs getting the puck back. The Caps have some defensemen who can skate with the puck. Maybe its time to employ that skill a bit, though for the record I'm not talking about doing that on the penalty kill.
* Ovechkin had a bit more room to work with tonight and he made Montreal pay. He wasn't the best player on the ice, but he at least played a good game. Its a start.
Game 3 Monday night in Montreal. Thank god for off days.
.
Saturday, April 17, 2010
NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Jackoff
Hey Joakim, tell me how my Nutz taste.
The Leastern Conference pairings collectively are nothing more than an under card for the big boys in the West, so let's get them out of the way first.
Cleveland vs. Chicago:
Why are they even playing this series? The only real competition we'll see here will be the cage match between Bulls GM John Paxson and head coach Vinnie Del Negro. LeBron and the Jamesettes may be a touch rusty in the opening game after coasting through their final weeks of the season and taking games off, but once they get loose, the Bulls will get obliterated in short order. You think Shaq isn't gonna enjoy tossing loud mouth Joakim Noah through the hoop a few times? I love Derrick Rose to death, and I'd love to see him make fools of the tiny Cavs back court, but there's no other position on the floor where the Bulls won't be majorly outclassed. This is nothing but a scrimmage for the Cavs.
Cavs in 4.
Orlando vs. Charlotte:
Charlotte? Who the fuck let these jizz pinchers in the playoffs? Larry “Mr. Bail on My Team Every Time I Get Hired But Stupid Owners Keep Giving Me Jobs” Brown already has one foot in the Sixers' front office. He knows what's coming: a beatdown at the hands of Dwight Howard and the Magic. The crunch time flame out master Vince Carter won't even make a negative imprint on his team in this series as the rest of the Magic will make sure none of the games are close. Orlando has somewhat quietly entered the playoffs as the hottest team in the league, losing only 5 times since the All-Star break. Matt Barnes and Jameer Nelson will provide the attitude and Howard will bring air traffic on the east coast to a halt after blowing the smoldering ashes of Theo Ratliff into space. I see the Bobcats catching fire and taking one game at home in front of their owner Michael Jordan. Speaking of MJ, here's a good bet: who gets more technical fouls this series, Stephen Jackson or Barnes?
Magic in 5.
Atlanta vs. Miwaukee:
This series was robbed of possibly becoming one of the most entertaining in the entire first round when the Bucks lost center Andrew Bogut to an elbow supernova. Brandon Jennings will make club-footed Mike Bibby look like a wax figure. The supremely underrated John Salmons and his beard can match Hawks guard Joe Johnson point-for-point. Former UCLA Bruin Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is a smart defender who may frustrate the occasionally immature J-Smoove and Carlos Delfino is better than Marvin Williams. Bucks coach Scott Skiles will keep his team fired up and in every game while the eyebrow-less Mike Woodson doesn't bring much to the party. As I write this, I'm almost talking myself in to picking the Bucks, but the overall athleticism of the Hawks will eventually prevail.
Hawks in 7.
Boston vs. Miami:
Dwyane Wade kicked me in the Nutz with a steel-toed boot in 2006 when he single-handedly dismantled my Mavericks (well, along with his tag team partner Bennett Salvatore) and robbed my team of a title, but I will cancel the hit on him if he can drive a stake in to the Celtics and slam their championship window closed. I hate the fucking Celtics. KG is a shamtoon who needs to be exposed in the light. I hate their crapjockey announcers and their ugly ass fans. I hate the leprechaun.
The Celtics are only two seasons away from winning a title, and they have many of the same names on their roster as they did in the 2008 Finals, but they aren't the same team. They're not feared anymore, in fact, they're reviled by the entire league. Talking loud and sayin' nuthin'. Plus they have the one guy who's done more for Dunkin' Donuts stock than anyone else in the L, Rasheed Wallace.
These teams only finished three games apart in the final standings, and Boston limps in to the playoffs going 3-7 over its last 10, while the Heat have gone 18-4 since the beginning of March and actually have the top-ranked defense in the league since the All-Star break. Rajon Rondo could have a big series as the Heat don't have a guard quick enough to stick with him, but that's about it. Remember, Boston has played with fire the past two playoff seasons by letting inferior teams extend series against them – Atlanta and Cleveland in 2008 and Chicago last year. Miami is a veteran team who was written off by many early in the season but they're out to prove something in this series and Wade's relentless attack will wear the Shamrock bitches out.
Heat in 6.
I Can Has Glendale
Apropos of nothing other than a great night of playoff hockey*:
"So you're an expert on elbows?"
*Certainly not apropos of Shane Doan's legendary Canadian prairie-boy intensity. Google "Andy Sutton" + "douchey Pens beat writer."**
**Hey, someone's gotta defend the Ottawa Senators. It's not like they have any organic fan base.***
***Think "Nationals, Washington."****
****Except pretty successful over the years.
.
"So you're an expert on elbows?"
*Certainly not apropos of Shane Doan's legendary Canadian prairie-boy intensity. Google "Andy Sutton" + "douchey Pens beat writer."**
**Hey, someone's gotta defend the Ottawa Senators. It's not like they have any organic fan base.***
***Think "Nationals, Washington."****
****Except pretty successful over the years.
.
Friday, April 16, 2010
Abraham Zapruder watches the Stanley Cup Playoffs
The big story of night three of the Stanley Cup Playoffs -- other than Marc-Andre Fleury again thinking tonight's game was a 7:30 start and coughing up a bad goal 18 seconds into the game -- is a familiar one: Penguins vs. Officials.
(See, no one can stop the Pens except the officials. To any Pens fan at Mellon Arena, that's who the Pens' opposition is on any given night: the refs. The Pens deserve to be on the power play all 60 minutes of every game.)
Late in the first period, Andy Sutton obliterated new Pens defenseman Jordan Leopold along the boards as he was carrying the puck through the neutral zone. Leopold was apparently rendered unconscious, and no penalty was called. This touched off a wild, irrational Manning-versus-Brady style debate on the message boards, comments sections, and twitter, mostly along the lines of Penguins Fans versus Everyone Else.
Because I was watching Flyers/Devils at the time (and more on that later, vis-a-vis the officiating), I waited 'til the big hit made it to YouTube (approximately 15 minutes) and broke it down.
I want to get this on record on the InterNutz just in case Sutton is suspended for this hit. There won't be any second-guessing here; I'm gettin' out front of this bitch.
Figure 1 (below) shows Sutton (arrow) and Leopold (bottom left, black) as far apart as they ever appeared on the TV broadcast. Does this constitute enough "distance traveled" to prompt a charging call when Leopold has the puck? Certainly this proves we're not about to see one of those newfangled "blind-side" hits.
Figure 2 (below) shows the impact at its absolute epicenter; thus the blur. The arrow points to Sutton's skate, which is clearly still on the ice. So it's not charging by that definition either. Yes, it's ugly, but Sutton is about 6'6'' and Leopold, as you can see above, is stooped over so far it's as though he's skating with a walker.
Figure 3 (below) shows another angle of the hit, from which you can see where Sutton's elbow is at the point of impact. If you're an official, could you justify an elbowing call on this? His upper arm is flat against his side!
If Andy Sutton is suspended, it will be for one reason and one reason only: because a member of the Pittsburgh Penguins was on the business end of the hit.
The Senators lost Alex Kovalev to a blown-out knee in the final week of the season, then lost Milan Michalek to the same injury in Game 1 of this series. Luck hasn't been in their favor, but they're hanging tough. The Penguins have themselves to blame for their lack of expected dominance in this series, but Pens fans, fueled by the constant lies of TV broadcaster/head cheerleader Paul Homerwald, expect some help from the referees.
Man, you gotta love Pens fans. In the second period of tonight's game, when Billy Guerin accidentally high-sticked Sidney Crosby in front of the Ottawa net, Crosby -- not realizing it was a teammate's stick -- flopped to the ice like he'd been shot, and the crowd went absolutely bonkers because there wasn't a high-sticking call against Ottawa. Just flat-out embarrassing for all parties involved. Crosby should have been called for a dive.
Meanwhile, in New Jersey, the Devils are partying like it's 1979*... and Bob Clarke is still whacking ankles and Bill Barber is doing swan dives all over the place. They've shown an incredible lack of composure, taking idiotic penalties (6 PIM for Kovalchuk alone so far in game 2, on three purely temper-related calls) and carping at the referees all game.
*All that's missing is their Colorado Rockies uniforms... and Don Cherry behind the bench.
No other team in the NHL is soft-headed enough to get into this predicament against the Flyers in 2010. (I'll pause here, as Andy Greene just cross-checked someone in the back for no reason whatsoever and got called.) You just let dummies like Carcillo run their mouths and take cheap shots, go about your business, and eventually they'll get frustrated, up the ante in the interest of throwing you off your game, and the refs will notice and start sending the Flyers on a parade to the penalty box. (I'll pause again, as the Flyers have scored a power-play goal to tie the score at 3.) This effect carries over from game to game even with different officiating crews; it sets the tone for the series in a variety of ways.
But the Devils -- clearly a better team than the Flyers from the net to the front office and everyplace in between -- are showing an alarming lack of composure against a chronically undisciplined, underachieving team.
And just as I post this, Crosby makes an incredible play to set up the go-ahead goal with about 3 minutes left to play. He's the best player in the world by a sizable margin and he does not need the special treatment from the officials the fans believe he merits.
.
(See, no one can stop the Pens except the officials. To any Pens fan at Mellon Arena, that's who the Pens' opposition is on any given night: the refs. The Pens deserve to be on the power play all 60 minutes of every game.)
Late in the first period, Andy Sutton obliterated new Pens defenseman Jordan Leopold along the boards as he was carrying the puck through the neutral zone. Leopold was apparently rendered unconscious, and no penalty was called. This touched off a wild, irrational Manning-versus-Brady style debate on the message boards, comments sections, and twitter, mostly along the lines of Penguins Fans versus Everyone Else.
Because I was watching Flyers/Devils at the time (and more on that later, vis-a-vis the officiating), I waited 'til the big hit made it to YouTube (approximately 15 minutes) and broke it down.
I want to get this on record on the InterNutz just in case Sutton is suspended for this hit. There won't be any second-guessing here; I'm gettin' out front of this bitch.
Figure 1 (below) shows Sutton (arrow) and Leopold (bottom left, black) as far apart as they ever appeared on the TV broadcast. Does this constitute enough "distance traveled" to prompt a charging call when Leopold has the puck? Certainly this proves we're not about to see one of those newfangled "blind-side" hits.
Figure 2 (below) shows the impact at its absolute epicenter; thus the blur. The arrow points to Sutton's skate, which is clearly still on the ice. So it's not charging by that definition either. Yes, it's ugly, but Sutton is about 6'6'' and Leopold, as you can see above, is stooped over so far it's as though he's skating with a walker.
Figure 3 (below) shows another angle of the hit, from which you can see where Sutton's elbow is at the point of impact. If you're an official, could you justify an elbowing call on this? His upper arm is flat against his side!
If Andy Sutton is suspended, it will be for one reason and one reason only: because a member of the Pittsburgh Penguins was on the business end of the hit.
The Senators lost Alex Kovalev to a blown-out knee in the final week of the season, then lost Milan Michalek to the same injury in Game 1 of this series. Luck hasn't been in their favor, but they're hanging tough. The Penguins have themselves to blame for their lack of expected dominance in this series, but Pens fans, fueled by the constant lies of TV broadcaster/head cheerleader Paul Homerwald, expect some help from the referees.
Man, you gotta love Pens fans. In the second period of tonight's game, when Billy Guerin accidentally high-sticked Sidney Crosby in front of the Ottawa net, Crosby -- not realizing it was a teammate's stick -- flopped to the ice like he'd been shot, and the crowd went absolutely bonkers because there wasn't a high-sticking call against Ottawa. Just flat-out embarrassing for all parties involved. Crosby should have been called for a dive.
Meanwhile, in New Jersey, the Devils are partying like it's 1979*... and Bob Clarke is still whacking ankles and Bill Barber is doing swan dives all over the place. They've shown an incredible lack of composure, taking idiotic penalties (6 PIM for Kovalchuk alone so far in game 2, on three purely temper-related calls) and carping at the referees all game.
*All that's missing is their Colorado Rockies uniforms... and Don Cherry behind the bench.
No other team in the NHL is soft-headed enough to get into this predicament against the Flyers in 2010. (I'll pause here, as Andy Greene just cross-checked someone in the back for no reason whatsoever and got called.) You just let dummies like Carcillo run their mouths and take cheap shots, go about your business, and eventually they'll get frustrated, up the ante in the interest of throwing you off your game, and the refs will notice and start sending the Flyers on a parade to the penalty box. (I'll pause again, as the Flyers have scored a power-play goal to tie the score at 3.) This effect carries over from game to game even with different officiating crews; it sets the tone for the series in a variety of ways.
But the Devils -- clearly a better team than the Flyers from the net to the front office and everyplace in between -- are showing an alarming lack of composure against a chronically undisciplined, underachieving team.
And just as I post this, Crosby makes an incredible play to set up the go-ahead goal with about 3 minutes left to play. He's the best player in the world by a sizable margin and he does not need the special treatment from the officials the fans believe he merits.
.
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