A Post In Five Acts

This photo from offwingphoto.com

After last night's dismantling of the New York Islanders, YOUR Washington Capitals are in first place.

Which 'first place'? Well, all of 'em. OK, that's not entirely true, but all of 'em that matter.

Just for fun, lets count 'em:

First place in the Southeast Division - With a 19 point lead (with a game in hand) over second place Florida, they have the largest lead of any division leader in the NHL. This virtually assures them of having one of the top three seeds in the East come playoff time.

First place in the Eastern Conference - With a five point lead over second place New Jersey (though Jersey has a game in hand), the Caps are setting the pace in the conference.

Highest scoring team in the NHL - And it ain't even close. The Caps have scored 202 goals in 52 games, an average of 3.81 goals per game. For some context, San Jose is in second place, 21 goals behind. They've averaged 3.28, over half a goal less per game.

Longest current win streak in the NHL - The Caps have won seven in a row, the last six of which have been in regulation.

Noticeably absent from the above list is 'Most Points in the NHL'. The leader in that category is San Jose with 78. In fact, the Caps aren't even in second place. Chicago has 76 points, two points more than Washington, though the Caps have a game in hand on both teams.

One more thing the Caps are leading the league in, and this one is a biggie:

Largest goal differential - A while back Bill James of baseball statistical fame figured out that the best predictor of future record is run differential, not record. Simply put, the best teams score the most runs, regardless of situation, inning, opponent, or any other factor. The same is true for hockey. The team that scores the most goals while giving up the least goals, i.e. the one with the largest difference between the two is likely the best team going forward.

Here are the top five teams by goal differential (through 1/26/10):

1. Washington Capitals ... +57

2. Chicago Blackhawks ... +52

3. San Jose Sharks ... +51

4. Vancouver Canucks ... +43

5. New Jersey Devils ... +25

After the top four, the list drops off substantially. This isn't a fail-safe predictor of future record, but you can see that teams like the Devils, Sabres (+20), and Penguins (+20) aren't in the same league with the Caps, Hawks, or Sharks. At least, not as currently composed.

In fact, three teams currently in playoff position in the Eastern Conference have negative goal differentials: the Senators (-4), Rangers (-8), and Panthers (-8). In the Western Conference, only the Red Wings (-3) are in the red, though the Predators have scored exactly as many as they've given up. For the benefit of the other two readers of this blog, the Flyers are +11, the Flames are -2, and the Stars are -20. Yikes. Don't put any non-refundable down payments on Stars playoff tickets this season.

So, what's all this mean? For the Caps it means they're very likely going to be sitting at a one or two seed come playoff time and just as likely they'll be facing a team who probably has little business being on the same rink. There are always upsets in short series, and the trading deadline will have lots to say about how valid the above rankings end up being, but as currently constituted, even with their rotating goalie situation, the Caps are one of the three best teams in the NHL, if not the best.

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