Hot Stove Predictionating

It's that time of year again. The time of year everyone hates to love, but we do it anyway because, as the kids say, it's hella interesting. As the only major pro sport in this country that doesn't have a salary cap that we still give a shit about (sorry, Canadian Football League!), baseball's off season is a three month long 'who dunit?' of intrigue, anger, anal leakage, and most of all rumors. Of anal leakage. (And free agency.)

There are even multiple websites devoted to baseball rumors, like this one, and this one, and this one. Oh, and this one. Well, that last one is less a rumor site than the other three, but what ever.

Even the big corporate whores have also got into the act with their own little rumor sites off their main pages. The point of all this? Rumors are important and what amounts to guessing is now big business.

So, now it's T!!!'s time to get in on the act. I mean, besides the www.toooastwilleatyourassforbreakfast.com site from above. Here are some predictions as to where the big name free agents will end up. These predictions are based on meticulously picked boogers and lots and lots of prior coffee shits. Avoid at all costs.

Matt Holliday

Holliday was a crazy good MVP-ish player in Colorado, but his failure, relatively speaking (he had an on-base of .378 and slugged over .450 in a pitcher's park), in the AL with Oakland for half a season last year is giving some AL teams pause.

The fact is that Holliday is not the player that Mark Teixiera or CC Sabathia were, but he has a few things in his favor this off season that will combine to net him a big contract. His agent, the reviled Scott Boras is making noise about the hugeiocity of the contract that Holliday 'deserves.' Holliday is also the acknowledged best player available, and that combined with the fact that pretty much every big money team (Yankees, Cardinals, Red Sox, Angels, Mets, Mariners, etc.) is in on him will all drive his price up into the almost-Teixeira range.

While there is interest in Holliday from teams around the majors, it comes down to this: the Yankees have a need for outfielders. So, like last off season when they had a hole at first base and one at the top of their rotation, you can expect they'll get the best player on the market to fill that hole. When was the last time the Yankees lost out on the biggest free agent when they wanted him? Right. Never.

Prediction: New York Yankees; 7 years, $128 million

Jason Bay

Bay has reportedly already turned down a 4 year, $60 million deal from the Red Sox. He'll probably be the first domino to fall considering how long Scott Boras likes to string out the process for his clients. It's this fact that makes me think he won't be back in Boston. Bay's defense since his knee surgery a couple years ago has fallen off the deep end. He's a good fit for Boston because of the small left field at Fenway Park, but in a few years he'll be a good fit for the DH spot.

Still, he's the best pure hitter available and will garner a big offer because of it. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Angels, Mariners or Mets throw $100 million at him. And because he is now such a terrible fit for the NL, I'm fully expecting that some idiot throws $100 mill at him in a futile attempt to save their hide. Omar Minaya, do your worst!

Prediction: New York Mets, 5 years, $100 million

John "Swirling Vortex of Diarrhea" Lackey

Lackey is a very good, but not great starting pitcher. The Angels have made attempts to re-sign him, but for whatever reason he seems intent on moving on. Every team in the majors (just about) could use a solid #2 guy like Lackey, but the conversation changes when you bring up his age (31) and his injury history. He's thrown just over 300 innings the last two seasons, which isn't bad by any stretch, but for the kind of money and years that Lackey is looking for teams are going to want a 200 inning guy, and it isn't certain if Lackey is that guy anymore.

If he is on the mound he's a solidly above average starting pitcher though, so you know someone is going to show him the money. Strangely enough, he's been connected to the Red Sox and Yankees. Surprise!! The Yankees showed last off season that they aren't afraid to give big money and years to a starter with an injury history (tha'd be AJ Burnett and his 5 year, $80+ million contract), and they need him more than Boston does. With questions surrounding New York's rotation I'm willing to bet they see Lackey as an answer.

Prediction: New York Yankees, 5 years $81 million

Adrian Beltre

Beltre is probably undervalued in this market. His power was severely curtailed in the spacious confines of Safeco Field in Seattle and his defense is excellent assuming his injuries last season haven't killed his range. The concerns are his injuries may have killed his range and age. But age is always a concern. I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the massive drop in power that Beltre experienced last year, but that is likely because of the injuries he suffered.

Coming off last season and four years in Seattle, Betre number are down mostly not of his own doing. He should be a relative bargain, and put into an environment like Citzens Bank Park in Philadelphia, he could do some serious damage.

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies, 3 years, $29 million

Johnny Damon

Damon's four year contract with Satan is finally up, and he held up better than anyone had a right to expect. He's a pariah in Boston now, but he's got an extra $12 million for his troubles, which isn't anything to sneeze at. And, surprise surprise, he's talking about staying in New York. He's still a good fit for the Yankees in left field at a one year deal with an option, but he may command more than that on the market.

Considering he's already left Boston for New York and Scott Boras is his agent, don't expect any below market contracts for Mr. Damon. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if Damon hangs in New York for another couple years.

Prediction: New York Yankees, 2 years, $22 million with a team option for $12m

We'll surely revisit these later to laugh at how horridly wrong they were.
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