Fail To The Redskins!

Chief Count'em Chickens rubs his eyes after yet another Redskins loss.

It doesn't take much in DC. A single victory at home over a reeling Broncos team and their inept back up quarterback and all of a sudden the entire city of Washington is making plans for late January. At 3-6 with a loss to the low-as-they-come Lions still eating at my gut, the smart money isn't on running the table. But smart money has nothing on the Washington Redskins or their starved-for-a-winner fans.

As fun as it would be to see this team pull together and go on a run, the best possible scenario for the long term health of the franchise is for the Redskins to lose their remaining seven games. Its not about higher draft position. That's not important. The Redskins would likely screw that up anyway. (Don't believe me? Take a look at the team's draft history and tell me I'm wrong.) The point is that this goes beyond the team. The organization is fundamentally screwed up.

The cliche that all problems start at the top is true, but Dan Snyder isn't going anywhere. All the 'Fire Snyder' and 'Worst. Owner. Ever." signs are nice, but that's a non-starter. Somehow, Snyder lucked into a half billion dollars, bought the Redskins, and the other NFL owners let him. Whats more, all his other investments are going down the tubes, so it's not like he's going to sell the only thing that he makes him money. The only hope is that, like George Steinbrenner, another owner who came into ownership and immediately tried to buy up every good player in sight, Snyder learns from his mistakes.

In the ten years he's owned the team, the Redskins have won a single playoff game. One. They've made the playoffs three times during Snyder's tenure as owner and have yet to win eleven games. Since Snyder bought the team in May of 1999, the Redskins cumulative record is 79-90. That's a .467 winning percentage, or the equivalent of a yearly 7-9 record. That's mediocrity, and it's also crazy-expensive mediocrity.

At some point its going to dawn on Snyder that what he's doing simply is not working. A year where they start off 2-6 and then go 6-2 the rest of the way sends the message, "Keep doing what you're doing." A year were they start off 2-6, win once, and then lose the next seven says, "You better wise up quick, son."

That's not to say Snyder will get that message. He is likely much more receptive to hearing the first message. In fact, he may hear the first even though the second is the one being sent. But for the long term health of the franchise, Snyder has to hear that second message at some point.

I'm not convinced that the Redskins can't win with Cerrato pulling the strings while Snyder pulls his (strings). What I am entirely convinced of is that they can't win consistently. Look at the Redskins records over the past ten years. They've gone 10-6, 8-8, 8-8, 7-9, 5-11, 6-10, 10-6, 5-11, 9-7, 8-8 and are currently 3-6. If you can get any pattern out of that, well, you're an impressive mathy-type person. They've got two ten win seasons, but also two eleven loss seasons. It's not a record that shows improvement or any above-average capabilities. Instead, it's a record that ebbs and flows with the tides.

Could the Redskins luck into a 12-4 year? Absolutely. They could get an easy schedule and experience no major injuries over a 16 game schedule just like any other team. They could just as easily luck into a 4-12 year. While they may win 12 once with this management and philosophy in place, they won't do it twice, and any type of sustained run like the Colts, Patriots, or Eagles (check their regular season record over the last ten years) is virtually impossible.

The reason is simple: the people in charge of the team simply aren't smart enough. The way to win in the NFL is to draft effectively, especially the later rounds of the draft where player's salaries are effectively nothing. Supplementing quality obtained in the draft with expensive free agents that fit an immediate need is smart. Building the team around expensive and inevitably older players simply isn't. But that's exactly what the Redskins have done and continue to do.

Earlier I used an analogy to George Steinbrenner. I hesitated to use it because in baseball you actually can win with the Dan Snyder/Vinny Cerrato philosophy. Baseball players have much longer careers than football players so giving them long term expensive contracts is not nearly as costly as it is in the NFL. You can give Mark Teixeira an eight year deal at huge money and if you do regret it, it'll only be at the very end of the deal (barring catastrophic injury of course). Also, in baseball there is no salary cap. If Teixeira for some reason can't play (injury, unexpected downturn in performance) the Yankees can just go out and buy someone else.

The Redskins can't operate like that because the salary cap won't let them. They can go out and give Albert Haynesworth a huge deal, and he'll probably play very well (and he is) for the first number of years. But then the pounding is going to take it's toll on him like it does to everyone who plays in the NFL and he's going to become a good player that doesn't play all the time who is paid like a superstar. Or, they'll cut him and he'll become a good player for someone else who just crushed your salary cap like a fat man sitting on a paper cup.

My point: The Redskins would be better off in the long run if they lost this year. A minimal amount of success will convince those currently in power that they should stay there. If you look hard enough for a specific sign, then that's the sign you are likely to see. Snyder is looking for the 'You're do'n a hellova job, Brownie' sign with all his might. It's going to take something fierce for him to realize what he's doing isn't effective.

He may never realize it, but if he does, it'll be because the team performs very badly. Only then will he realize his choice is 'win their way' or 'lose your way'. Hopefully then he'll make the right decision and turn the organization over to a competent football man.
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