There Must Be Stupid In The Water

The Royals have done it again.

Dumb trades, ridiculous and wasteful free agent signings, and obviously wrong-headed and cheap draft choices were the hallmarks of the previous Allard Baird regime. Finally Baird was put out of his misery and Dayton Moore was brought in from the phenomenally successful Braves front office. You would think this would be a huge upgrade: an obviously incompetent boob for a well thought of up-and-comer from a successful organization.

Not so much.(PP!)

Baird went off to Boston to help the Red Sox win a second World Series in four years, while Moore's Royals have finished last, last, second to last and are currently second to last in their (mediocre) division. Despite the bad results, there has been a general feeling among (at least some) Royals fans that the organization has turned over a new leaf. They've spent more money on draft picks than ever before to stock a depleted farm system, and they initially found a diamond in the rough in free agent Gil Meche. Progress, if not out-right success.

So much for progress. Without recapping the Royals entire off-season, Moore spent time, energy, and most importantly, lots of money assembling the worst hitting lineup in the American League. You might think if the Royals couldn't hit, well maybe they can field. Nope, can't do that either. Their lineup is execrable both offensively and defensively. The Royals of recent vintage were always lousy, but at least they were lousy on the cheap. Now they're lousy and moderately expensive.

So, four paragraphs into this screed, here's what just happened that prompted the above: The Royals just traded for Yuniesky Betancourt. Here are three things you should know about Yuniesky Betancourt:

1) Betancourt is a horrible hitter. According to the super smart statisticians at baseballprospectus.com, Betancourt is worse than a replacement level player, meaning he is worse than a random player the Royals could have picked up essentially for free.

2) Betancourt isn't free. In fact, he's expensive. He's signed through 2011 at a cost of $9 million, which for a team that has averaged a $65 million payroll over the past three seasons, is not chump change. And, relative to what Betancourt provides on (and off) the field, it's a massive waste of money.

You might think, 'OK, fine. He's a horrible hitter, and he's relatively expensive. I get it, but he must have something going for him... I bet he's a great fielder.' Funny you bring that up, because that brings us to number three:

3) Betancourt is a horrible fielder. On this point there is no argument. Advanced fielding stats say he sucks. Traditional fielding stats say he sucks. Scouts say he sucks. Fans say he sucks. Verdict: He sucks.

OK, fine, but you're not that smart, mattymatty of TOOOAST!!!, what ever that is. I bet there is a wide variety of opinion about this deal. Everyone can't possibly hate it... right?

Well, actually, everyone hates it. Take a listen:

Christina Karhl of Baseball Prospectus.com (subscription required):

This is supposed to be the solution to their shortstop problem? [...] this was one pickup which has the twin misfortunes of not improving a bad unit in a meaningful way while costing more than enough to engender regret. Yippee.

R.J. Anderson of Fangraphs.com:

The Royals desperately needed a shortstop. [...] The Royals still desperately need a shortstop.

U.S.S Mariner.com (a blog that roots for the team that got rid of Betancourt):

This is what hope feels like.

Joe Posnanski:

The Royals are a team that cannot field, hit, hit with power, run or walk. They just traded for a player who cannot field, hit, hit with power, run or walk.

And the money quote, from Rany Jazayerli of the usually-quite-positive Rany on the Royals:

I no longer have any expectation that the Royals will ever win anything under the current administration. [...] this trade closes the argument that the Royals have even a superficial understanding of statistics. The Royals don’t understand the first rule of offensive statistics: that the most important offensive skill is the ability to reach base. They don’t pay any attention to defensive statistics, even though the sabermetric community has made huge strides in the evaluation of defense over the last 5-10 years: the Royals still persist in the delusion that Betancourt is a fine defensive player, even though the numbers (and a growing segment of scouts) agree that he is a liability in the field.

The Royals don’t understand statistics as they apply to the economics of baseball [...] they don’t understand the concept of replacement level: they made this trade in part out of desperation for a shortstop, not understanding that Betancourt’s performance is so bad that they could call up a team at random, offer to send them a PTBNL for that team’s starting shortstop in Triple-A, and do nearly as well. They don’t understand how a player’s age impacts his performance, because they think that Betancourt still has room to improve, even though he’s 27 years old and at the age where most players have peaked.

And finally, the Royals have no appreciation for their place in the success cycle. What bothers me the most about the trade is this: why now? The Mariners were sick to death of Betancourt, and his value was only going to go down as he crawled deeper into their doghouse. Why did a team that’s 11 games under .500 and 9.5 games out of first place feel compelled to sacrifice future talent for a stopgap?

[...]

In short, the Royals don’t seem to understand all the different ways that statistics can be used to enhance the information that they are getting from a scout’s perspective. And worse than that, they don’t seem to care.

On the bright side, at least the Royals didn't just trade for Jeff Francoeur. Once he sees Francoeur play, this guy is going to be quite disappointed:



Incidentally, according to The Baseball Nerd (a.k.a. Keith Olbermann), his name is Joel Francisco, and he is the first Mets fan with a Jeff Francoeur jersey. According to me, he just blew $250 that would have been better spent paying someone to shove a pitchfork up his anus.
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