Quit Yr Barn Burn'n, Son! Its Free Agent Time!

Don't know if you've been following the baseball free agent derby or not, but its been a barn burner so far. That's 'barn burner' as in so boring that you'd rather go burn your barn than pay attention. Well, the good news, baseball fans, is that the intrigue is going to start getting thicker, much like... well, lets just keep moving, shall we?

The way free agency tends to work is pretty simple. The big fish sign first, thereby setting the market for the smaller fish. Unlike some previous years, we've got some pretty big fish this season. Specifically, there are two guys who are going to set the market: first baseman Mark Teixeira, formerly of the Rangers by way of the Braves and Angels, and C.C. Sabathia ex-Indians and Brewers starting pitcher.

Sabathia is 28, and just entering his prime years. Sabathia's combination of durability, quality, and youth is a hard one to come across on the free agent market and though he isn't the best pitcher in baseball, he's close. That combined with the constant need for excellent starting pitching will net him a contract over and above what Johan Santana signed last off season after being traded to the Mets (6 years, $137.5 million).

Rumors have surfaced that the Yankees (surprise!) have offered Sabathia a six year contract totaling $140 million (or $23.3 million a year). Reportedly, Sabathia is also of interest to the Dodgers, Angels, and Giants, all of whom play on the West Coast. Sabathia grew up in northern California and (again, reportedly) is interested in returning to live and play there. As he will likely get at least one very good offer from one of the above west coast teams, the Yankees will almost certainly up their offer to something that can only be described as patently silly (as if $23 million a year isn't already in that realm).

Despite this, my guess is that Sabathia will end up on the west coast somewhere. It will be hard to turn down the Yankees big bucks, but Sabathia is going to get a ton of money from which ever team he chooses and the Angels and Giants both have money to spend and are far closer to Sabathia's home. Officially, my guess is he winds up with the Angels for slightly less money but the same number of years offered to him by the Yankees.

The possibility that Sabathia does not sign with New York exists because his agent is not Scott Boras. Boras is known to push his clients to take the largest dollar amount offered, regardless of the quality of the team the player is joining (A-Rod), the stated preference of a player to remain in place (Derek Lowe), or the stated preference of a player to be in a small market (Carlos Beltran) or really any preference a player may have at all.

But, while Boras is not Sabathia's agent (yet), he is Mark Teixeira's. Teixeira (pronounced Teh-share-uh) is the same age as Sabathia, and like Sabathia is entering his prime years. Lets be clear: Teixeria isn't Alex Rodriguez. He's a step down from that. But Rodriguez is so good that a step down is still an excellent player. Teixeira is an all-star quality hitter, good for a line of .300/.400/.500 each year (that's batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage). What makes him unique though is his incredible defense. Often first base is the position you stash the guy who really has no business playing the field at all, but Teixeira is different.

The performance analysis community likes to total up the number of runs that a player creates over and above what a freely available mediocre player would create. The benefit to analysis of this type is that it takes defense into account. For example, Manny Ramirez is a better hitter than Mark Teixeira because over the same number of plate appearances he will generate more runs. However, Ramirez's defense is so lousy that he gives back much of the value he generates at the plate. Teixeira's defense, like his offense, is a large positive, making him the more valuable player.

Teixeira has been rumored to be joining just about every team in baseball, partially in recognition of the above paragraph. The major players rumored to be in on Teixeira are the LA Angels, New York Yankees, and the Boston Red Sox. The Yankees make the most sense due to their unlimited budget and their need for both offense and defense at first base. The Angels make sense too as they traded their starting first baseman Casey Kotchman to the Braves to get Teixeira during the season. But the Angels may be more interested in landing Sabathia than keeping Teixeira, and unlike the Yankees, they can't afford both.
The Red Sox are the wild card team in this sweepstakes. They have the money, but unlike the Yankees and Angels, they don't have the position open. Kevin Youkilis is the starting first baseman and he was a legitimate MVP candidate last season, finishing third for the award. Youkilis does have the flexibility to move over to third base, which is the position that he came up playing but the Red Sox have Mike Lowell there. Just last year Lowell was the World Series MVP, but in 2008 he struggled with injuries. He has two years remaining on his contract so if Teixeira were to sign with Boston that would signal the end of Lowell's time with the Red Sox. Thus, for Boston to sign Teixeira, they'd have to move their first baseman to third base and trade their third baseman. Seems like a lot to go through to fix something that wasn't a problem to begin with.

The other complicating factor is that the Red Sox have a minor league first baseman named Lars Anderson who has been compared to Teixeira. Anderson is 21 and ripped up the baseball up in AA last season. He isn't read for the major leagues yet, but he very well could be up and playing regularly in a year or two. Signing Teixeira to the long term deal he would want would effectively block Anderson and turn him into trade bate.

Regardless of all these roadblocks, the common media perception now seems to be that Teixeira will end up in Boston. No matter where these two sign, as soon as they do, you can forgo the barn arson and start watching the free agents sign on the dotted line.