The Cheaters’ Guide to the 2008 NFL Season

To commemorate the seismic event in Foxborough that will forever mark Week 1 of the 2008 NFL season, I’m offering my season preview column after a week of the season has already passed. That’s right, I’m cheating – I’m the Belichick of Bloggers!

Time to call our winners – 6.25% of precincts (i.e., one of 16 games) have reported.

AFC East
New England (11-5)
That’s right folks, right here at T!!!! you’ll find the only NFL season preview that factors in Tom Brady’s season-ending injury! Until last year the Pats were world-beaters because they had the best coach; then last year they were the best because they had the best QB? Vegas is buying it (see below), but I’m not. Well… Unless coaching Randy Moss automatically makes you a buffoon. The last three head coaches he had before Belichick were Mike Tice, Norv Turner, and Art Shell – I’m pretty sure they were all inept beforehand.

New York Jets (9-7)
Brett Favre’s charmed life continues with Brady’s injury; there’s no longer an 800-pound gorilla in the AFC East, even if the Patriots are still an excellent team. If there was some way for John Madden to credit Favre for Brady’s injury without sounding evil, he’d do it.

New England at New York Jets
The Jets are actually favored in this game. Wanna know what dumb smells like? Inhale now.
Pick: New England

Buffalo (8-8)
While week 1’s Jets/Dolphins match provided more fuel for the Favre hagiographers to spew their nonsense and make NFL viewers dumber, the Bills/Seahawks game provided some food for actual, relevant thought. For years, the Bills have had outstanding special teams and the Seahawks have had horrible special teams; now everyone knows it. Note that the Seahawks’ special teams coach is the once-excellent Bruce DeHaven, whom Wade Phillips “escapegoated” and fired after the Titans’ “Music City Miracle” in January 2000.

Miami (5-11)
The Big CarTuna has arrived on the scene, so even though the Dolphins are still totally bereft of talent, now they’re much better at absorbing pointless, profanity-laced tirades. That, plus a QB who can throw a football into the ocean from the beach, is good for at least 3 more wins, says I. (Actually, their Pythagorean record from last year’s 1-15 debacle was actually 4-12. But unless you watched Bills/Seahawks last week instead of Jets/Pats, you’ll never be able to comprehend such a concept.)

AFC North
Pittsburgh (10-6)
I may have had them slotted into second place behind the Ravens before their week-1 shellacking of the I-thought-they-were-supposed-to-be-good Houston Texans, but you can’t prove anything. Offensive line woes? Guess not.

Baltimore (9-7)*
I was a little dismayed that the Ravens went with rookie QB Joe Flacco to start the season, as though they were acknowledging this as a rebuilding year when, in fact, they have the talent to win this division. Week 1 proved they know better than I: apparently there is no such thing as a rebuilding year when Ray Lewis is on your team. He was an absolute beast against Cincinnati. And Flacco wasn’t too bad either.

Cleveland (7-9)
I was subjected to this team’s complete meltdown at the hands of the Cowboys in week 1, and no aspect of their performance was better than absolutely putrescent. Game planning, coaching, line play, skill position play, adjustments, general execution, effort – you name it, and the Browns’ version of it appeared completely moribund. They got no pass rush, but – although there was no mention of this made on TV by Troy Aikman – it’s because they dropped eight men into coverage on almost every down. Unfortunately, they still couldn’t cover Jason Witten. This, as you may ascertain, is a problem.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland
If week 2 features anything even remotely resembling the versions of these teams that showed up in week 1, this is going to be a bloodbath.
Pick: Pittsburgh

Cincinnati (4-12)
Just like Cleveland, but more disorganized. Not even a viable source of quality fantasy players anymore. The sooner Marvin Lewis quits his job, the more likely he is to ever work in the NFL again.

AFC South
Indianapolis (10-6)
Looked like doody against the Bears in week 1, but other than Manning’s rust and Jeff Saturday’s injury, I don’t see many reasons this team shouldn’t win its division. They did it last year without Marvin Harrison and all three starting linebackers.

Jacksonville (9-7)*
I thought they were serious contenders for the division title until they lost half their offensive line in week 1. (Or did I? Matt Walsh didn’t videotape me addressing this.) About 2 weeks ago, a fellow Rat Bastard Leaguer asked me whether critically wounded offensive lineman Richard Collier was a starter. I replied that he wasn’t, which was true then, but now everyone on the depth chart ahead of him has been injured.

Buffalo at Jacksonville
Tune in and watch a gangly white cokehead from Arkansas gash the Buffalo defense worse than the entire Seahawks’ receiving corps did last week!
Pick: Jacksonville

Houston (8-8)
Based on their self-soiling performance in Pittsburgh, there is no way this team should win 8 games. However, they won 8 games last season and, given the health of Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, they should be better, right? They can’t possibly be worse than they were last season, can they?

Baltimore at Houston
This game has been moved to Monday night (or perhaps rescheduled outright), so even fewer people will see it. I spent a lot of time thinking about who would win this game, and then I realized: Who gives a flying shit? No one’s reading this, and I don’t have any money on it.
Pick: Houston

Tennessee (8-8)
Cheer up, Vince Young: if you decide this NFL thing isn’t working out, you can move back to Austin, where you’ll be treated like a superhero – deservedly – for the rest of your life.

Tennessee at Cincinnati
Enumerate Cincinnati’s “intangibles” in one hand and take a shit in the other, and see if you can even tell the difference.
Pick: Tennessee

AFC West
San Diego (11-5)
Norv Turner -- still holdin’ on 16 after all these years. And so it goes…

Denver (9-7)
More bad news for Chad Osso Bucco: Reebok informed him he’ll have to wait at least another week to get his new name on his game jerseys; all the employees in their sweatshops will be stitching new Eddie Royal jerseys 24 hours a day for the next week.

San Diego at Denver
A loss here puts San Diego in almost the biggest possible hole after two weeks of a season. If it happens, I’m on the Denver bandwagon.
Pick: San Diego

Kansas City (6-10)
This would be a 9-7 team with a good quarterback. However, 68% of the quarterbacks who have ever played in the NFL slot in between “good” and where the Chiefs are right now.

Oakland (3-13)
Just fuckin’ die already, baby!

Oakland at Kansas City
Well, a slow car beats a stalled car every time. But what about a stalled car versus one that’s stuck in reverse and spewing clouds of noxious fumes?
Pick: Kansas City

NFC West
Seattle (9-7)
















Highway cop: Do you feel this football team is safe for NFL competition?
Mike Holmgren: Yes, I really do. It's not pretty, but it’ll get you where you wanna go.
Highway cop: You have no wide receivers.
Holmgren: They’re all lost.
Cop: You have no functioning running backs.
Holmgren: Nope, not a one.
Cop: Your quarterback is staggering around like a blind dog in a slaughterhouse.
Holmgren: Well… the linebackers still work. Clear as a bell!
Cop: I can't let you go.
Holmgren: Can't what?
Cop: It's not fit for the NFL. The team will be impounded until it's made safe for competition.
Holmgren: But we’re in the NFC West!
Cop: Oh. Well, carry on then. When do playoff tickets go on sale?

Arizona (9-7)
Not exactly a bold prediction, but the Cardinals will find a way to lose the most eminently winnable division in the history of the NFL.

Miami at Arizona
There’s a truism in hockey that goes thusly: “Hard work beats talent if talent doesn’t work hard.” That sentiment is applicable to at least three Cardinals losses a season. But don’t you have to have at least a little tiny bit of talent for this to work in the NFL?
Pick: Arizona

San Francisco (6-10)
Like the Chiefs, but with no one who can catch the ball either.

San Francisco at Seattle
I'd rather clean out the garage than try to come up with something relevant to say about this game, let alone actually watch the goddam thing.
Pick: Seattle

St. Louis (2-14)
The two wins you get in the NFC West for beating the Rams is equivalent to the 400 points you used to get on the SAT for filling in your name correctly. (No wonder America’s standardized test scores are falling…) Anyway, I checked – the Rams don’t play Detroit this year, but they do play Atlanta. So we’ll go with two wins.

New York Dr. Galakiewicz Giants at St. Louis
I’ll relish this game as the one and only time this season that I’m glad Eli Manning is my starting quarterback in the Rat Bastard Fantasy League.
Pick: New York Artie Lange’s Black Liver Giants

NFC North
Green Bay (11-5)
In his NFL starting debut, Aaron Rodgers looked as poised as the “after” guy in an adult diaper commercial. The Brett Favre hagiographers aren’t inclined to notice it, but every unit on this team is good; Favre wasn’t close to the only reason the Packers won their division last year. The team made Favre look great last season, not the other way ‘round. (In 2006 Favre looked like the “before” guy in the adult diaper commercial.)

Minnesota (10-6)
Welcome to the NFL, “Tiberius” Jackson: if you play well and your team still misses the playoffs, it’s your fault. Only Brett Favre gets a pass on things like this.

Indianapolis at Minnesota
One of these teams is going to start out 0-2. I’ll just stop there.
Pick: Indianapolis

Chicago (8-8)
They did an outstanding job keeping the skills of Matt Forte under their proverbial hat, but as of right this instant – Behold the virtues of cheating! – every team is going to defend the Bears the way they defend the Vikings. And it’ll work even better with the Bears than it works with the Vikings – whereas the jury is still out on Tiberius Jackson, we know Kyle Orton is terrible.

Detroit (3-13)
Friday, Bill Simmons wrote this:

“With any job, you're going to have your ups and downs. At some point, you have to decide whether the downs outweigh the ups to the point that it's not worth it for you to have that job anymore. You could call it a satisfaction/misery ratio. If that ratio swings past 20/80, it's time to go. Well, if you're Matt Millen and everyone in Detroit thinks you're incompetent, openly despises you and spends every waking moment pining for your departure, at some point wouldn't that reality outweigh Millen's salary as well as any fun he could ever have running a football team? He's probably afraid to pick up a newspaper or turn on the radio. He probably spends every dinner wondering if the cook hawked a loogie in his entree. He probably walks through the stadium on Sundays with his head down. And on top of that, his team is awful. You could say his satisfaction/misery ratio is at 5/95 right now. So why wouldn't he quit and go back to TV?”

This line of argument is wildly invalid – and has been so since Millen was hired – for a reason that actually supports Simmons’ argument: Millen doesn’t live in Detroit and never has. He lives in Pennsylvania and occasionally takes a flight to Detroit to drop in on a Lions game. This was warning sign number 1 when Millen was hired, and the worst case scenario has come to pass.

Green Bay at Detroit
Every year, without fail, Brett Favre, despite being a fucking superhero, would tank a division game for the Packers on the road by throwing three or four interceptions. (Last year’s Favre Gunslinging Catastrophe was at Soldier Field late in the season.) If the Packers no longer reap the benefits of having Jesus Fucking Lawnmower as their QB, they also don’t have to deal with his annual divisional pants-soiling.
Pick: Green Bay wins and covers

NFC South
Carolina (10-6)
The fact that Jake Of The Man’s arm didn’t fall off in San Diego is enough to bump the Panthers up two wins. The fact that they could very easily win both games during Steve Smith’s suspension is also a big deal.

Chicago at Carolina
If week 1 is Jump to Conclusions Week, week 2 is Flawed Logic Week. If Chicago beats Indy and Carolina beats Chicago, then Carolina is better than Indy… Right?
Pick: Carolina

New Orleans (10-6)*
Injuries are already crushing this team on both sides of the ball, but their offense is good enough to overcome Colston’s injury and the defense wasn’t any good to begin with.

Tampa Bay (9-7)
Jon Gruden smells a rat. And like TO’s boy says, if it smells like a rat, and it looks like a rat…

Atlanta (4-12)
If there are any Falcons die-hards out there (there aren’t), take heart: If the Falcons played the Lions every week, they’d go 16-0.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay
Atlanta’s arrow may be pointing up, but Tampa Bay still has enough going for it that they won’t be upset by an upstart, unknown-quantity team at home.
Pick: Tampa Bay

NFC East
Philadelphia (12-4)
If you’re a “glass half full” person (Note: there are no Eagles fans who are “glass-half-full” people), you have to like this team (Note: Eagles fans do not actually like the Eagles). No other team in the league played well enough to win 15 of their 16 games last season, with the notable exception of the Patriots, who actually won all 16 games. Given the same personnel and performance this season, the Eagles are much better than a .500 team. But with the additions of Asante Samuel, Chris Clemons, and DeSean Jackson; the health of Donovan McNabb and L.J. Smith; and a much easier schedule than last season, they should be even better.

Dallas (11-5)*
Seriously: how long can these motherfuckers keep coasting by on all this “God” bullshit? At some point they’re going to have to face the same adversity as every other team. (And if “adversity” is 11-5 and a Wild Card, sign me the hell up!)

Philadelphia at Dallas
This game opened at Dallas minus nine and a half. NINE AND A HALF! The last time these teams played each other, the Cowboys scored a total of SIX points and Tony Romo looked like that mook on the Weather Channel in the middle of Hurricane Ike in downtown Houston. You know, it’s tough to cover a nine-and-a-half-point line when you only score six.
Pick: Philadelphia

NY Giants (10-6)
A team that gets pretty consistent results from year to year but is defined week to week by its wildly inconsistent quarterback. Gummo Manning has been officially upgraded from “just good enough to get you beat.”

Washington (7-9)
Erect monkey dick, meet moist football.

New Orleans at Washington
This just strikes me as a bad matchup for the Redskins. If the Saints can get out to any sort of a lead in the first half, they can just sit back and watch the Redskins offense defecate all over itself. Washington may be a good team by the second half of this season, but they’re not worth much now.
Pick: New Orleans

(*Wild Card.)

Math Audit: The NFL Sucks!
I first projected records for each team individually off the top of my head and then added up the wins and losses to make sure the predictions are actually viable. Turns out I have such a low opinion of the current quality of NFL teams that I predicted the entire league to be 32 games under .500. Ooof.

Time to make some adjustments.

I adjusted New England and Buffalo up one game in the AFC East; Denver and San Diego in the AFC West; the entire NFC West; all NFC North teams but Chicago; Carolina and New Orleans in the NFC South; and all NFC East teams but Washington. Just know that I actually believe all these teams are approximately 13.5% suckier than their projected records indicate.